BRPT more negative cashflow
BRPT Current 815 Target 636 -22%
11/8/22
1 minute read
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
-9% 11% -3% -1% -6%
758 843 813 804 759
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-90% -92% -91% -96% -93%
33 26 30 -0 9
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow million dollars
152 311 -511 -114 142
-168 -578 -173 180 -338
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
2,026 1,875 1,649 1,669 1,522
4,602 4,975 4,977 4,841 4,916
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
-3,298 -3,413 -3,870 -3,825 -3,874
-61 -107 -457 16 -49
-987 -33 0 27 -0
11/8/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 0%
- Last 12 months cash flow -21% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -11% of market cap
- Latest net cash -67% of market cap
Sales declined -6%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
-9% 11% -3% -1% -6%
758 843 813 804 759
- Sales declined -6% in the third quarter to 759 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is 2% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 869 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-90% -92% -91% -96% -93%
33 26 30 -0 9
- The cash cost ratio went from -96% to -93% profit from -0 to 9 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use a -92% cost ratio to predict a 20 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow million dollars
152 311 -511 -114 142
-168 -578 -173 180 -338
- Free cashflow went negative from 66 to -196 million dollars in the third quarter with -338 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -270 million dollars now.
- We assume -215 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -149 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
2,026 1,875 1,649 1,669 1,522
4,602 4,975 4,977 4,841 4,916
- Cash declined 1,669 to 1,522 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,841 to 4,916 million dollars so net cash was down -3,172 to -3,394 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout + 598 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -3,992 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
-3,298 -3,413 -3,870 -3,825 -3,874
-61 -107 -457 16 -49
-987 -33 0 27 -0
- BRPT cumulative capital worsened -3,825 to -3,874 million dollars with -49 & -0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -4,472 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,063 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.18 X assets with a -9 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 264 million dollars which means a 19 X valuation. A 15 X valuation gives a -22% lower target price 636 rupiah.
