BRMS.jk Cashflow negative
Current 159 Target 79 -50%
1/2/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-56% 14% 24% -12% 18%
30 ; 34 ; 42 ; 37 ; 44 billion rupiah
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% -13% -3% -10% -7%
-1 ; -7 ; -5 ; -7 ; -7 billion rupiah
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
33 ; 26 ; 5 ; 14 ; 5 billion rupiah
-242 ; -1,719 ; -935 ; -222 ; -287 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
201 ; 857 ; 788 ; 586 ; 1,099 billion rupiah
1,404 ; 1,442 ; 1,433 ; 1,481 ; 2,403 billion rupiah
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
10 ; 10 ; 10 ; 11 ; -746 billion rupiah
-1 ; -2,370 ; -874 ; -3 ; 0 billion rupiah
Current 159 Target 79 -50%
1/2/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 46%
- Last 12 months cash flow -14% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -18% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -6% of market cap
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
-56% 14% 24% -12% 18%
30 ; 34 ; 42 ; 37 ; 44 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 18% in the third quarter to 44 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 39% now.
- This brings the average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 51 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% -13% -3% -10% -7%
-1 ; -7 ; -5 ; -7 ; -7 billion rupiah
- The cash margin went from -10% to -7% profit from -7 to -7 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at -8% now.
- We use a 28% cash margin from cashflow to predict a 10 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
33 ; 26 ; 5 ; 14 ; 5 billion rupiah
-242 ; -1,719 ; -935 ; -222 ; -287 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from -208 to -283 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -287 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -778 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -287 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -273 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
201 ; 857 ; 788 ; 586 ; 1,099 billion rupiah
1,404 ; 1,442 ; 1,433 ; 1,481 ; 2,403 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 586 to 1,099 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,481 to 2,403 billion rupiah so net cash was down -894 to -1,304 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 1,093 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,397 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
10 ; 10 ; 10 ; 11 ; -746 billion rupiah
-1 ; -2,370 ; -874 ; -3 ; 0 billion rupiah
- BRMS.jk (raised) -746 billion rupiah in the third quarter -746 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will raise -1,093 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 22,544 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.22 X assets with a -16 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 56 billion rupiah which means a 400 X valuation. A 200 X valuation gives a -50% lower target price 79 rupiah.