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BRIS cashflow positive

BRIS.jk Current 1,355 Target 670 -51%

11/19/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 13%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -79% of market cap
​
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-4% 4% 1% 5% 2%
4,352 4,514 4,580 4,796 4,909
  • Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 4,909 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,056 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-61% -60% -59% -57% -55%
749 771 988 1,143 1,074
  • The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -55% profit from 1,143 to 1,074 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -58% now.
  • We use a -55% cost ratio to predict a 1,078 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
5,151 8,490 -281 -6,349 -4,723
-4,485 -4,866 -2,139 4,700 5,451
  • Free cashflow went positive from -1,649 to 729 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 5,451 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 71 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -1,567 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 689 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
22,263 26,542 24,122 21,716 23,206
57,071 61,887 62,752 65,428 67,494
  • Cash increased 21,716 to 23,206 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 65,428 to 67,494 billion rupiah so net cash was down -43,712 to -44,288 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -27 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -41,532 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 0 0
655 -655 0 757 0
  • BRIS.jk (raised) 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity but will pay 27 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 55,730 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.20 X assets with a 110 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 2,756 billion rupiah which means a 20 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a -51% lower target price 670 rupiah.
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