BRIS cashflow positive
BRIS.jk Current 1,355 Target 670 -51%
11/19/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-4% 4% 1% 5% 2%
4,352 4,514 4,580 4,796 4,909
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-61% -60% -59% -57% -55%
749 771 988 1,143 1,074
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
5,151 8,490 -281 -6,349 -4,723
-4,485 -4,866 -2,139 4,700 5,451
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
22,263 26,542 24,122 21,716 23,206
57,071 61,887 62,752 65,428 67,494
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 0 0
655 -655 0 757 0
11/19/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 13%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 1% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 0% of market cap
- Latest net cash -79% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-4% 4% 1% 5% 2%
4,352 4,514 4,580 4,796 4,909
- Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 4,909 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,056 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-61% -60% -59% -57% -55%
749 771 988 1,143 1,074
- The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -55% profit from 1,143 to 1,074 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -58% now.
- We use a -55% cost ratio to predict a 1,078 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
5,151 8,490 -281 -6,349 -4,723
-4,485 -4,866 -2,139 4,700 5,451
- Free cashflow went positive from -1,649 to 729 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 5,451 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 71 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,567 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 689 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
22,263 26,542 24,122 21,716 23,206
57,071 61,887 62,752 65,428 67,494
- Cash increased 21,716 to 23,206 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 65,428 to 67,494 billion rupiah so net cash was down -43,712 to -44,288 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -27 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -41,532 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
0 0 0 0 0
655 -655 0 757 0
- BRIS.jk (raised) 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity but will pay 27 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 55,730 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.20 X assets with a 110 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,756 billion rupiah which means a 20 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a -51% lower target price 670 rupiah.
