BRIS cashflow less negative
BRIS Current 1,510 Target 1,261 -16%
Sep 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
2% -4% 4% 1% 5%
4,516 4,352 4,514 4,580 4,796
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-57% -62% -63% -54% -50%
767 749 771 988 1,143
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
6,067 5,151 8,490 -281 -6,349
-11,495 -4,485 -4,866 -2,139 4,700
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
20,347 22,263 26,542 24,122 21,716
57,587 57,071 61,887 62,752 65,428
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,354 -2,699 -3,354 -3,354 -2,597
-52 655 -655 0 757
Sep 7, 2022
1 minute read
- BRIS last 12 months sales growth + 6%
- BRIS last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- BRIS last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
- BRIS latest net cash -70% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
2% -4% 4% 1% 5%
4,516 4,352 4,514 4,580 4,796
- Sales grew 5% in the second quarter to 4,796 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,082 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-57% -62% -63% -54% -50%
767 749 771 988 1,143
- The cash cost ratio went from -54% to -50% profit from 988 to 1,143 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -57% now.
- We use a -54% cost ratio to predict a 1,102 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
6,067 5,151 8,490 -281 -6,349
-11,495 -4,485 -4,866 -2,139 4,700
- Free cashflow went from -2,420 to -1,649 billion rupiah in the second quarter with positive 4,700 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 55 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,697 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 540 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
20,347 22,263 26,542 24,122 21,716
57,587 57,071 61,887 62,752 65,428
- Cash declined 24,122 to 21,716 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 62,752 to 65,428 billion rupiah so net cash was down -38,630 to -43,712 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,189 billion rupiah equity payout -26 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -42,741 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,354 -2,699 -3,354 -3,354 -2,597
-52 655 -655 0 757
- BRIS cumulative capital improved -3,354 to -2,597 billion rupiah with + 757 billion rupiah from equity in the second quarter & will be -1,382 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 62,105 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,161 billion rupiah (vs 387 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 29 X valuation. A 24 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 1,261 rupiah.
