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BRIS looking a bit sharper as average cashflow rises
BRIS Current 1,445 Target 1,550 + 7%
May 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 5% -11% 8% 1%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-60% -56% -60% -63% -57%
Cashflow negative but average rising
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,435 -80 1,905 3,716 -2,389
Balance sheet leverage higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-191,506 -203,611 -204,667 -213,734 -221,187
Capital raised flat , a 7% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
565, 513, 513, -142, -142
May 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 5% -11% 8% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 4,580 billion rupiah 2% above our 4,469 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,953 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-60% -56% -60% -63% -57%
- The cash cost ratio went from -63% to -57% profit from 771 to 988 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
- We use the average -59% cost ratio to predict a 1,040 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative but average rising
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,435 -80 1,905 3,716 -2,389
- Free cashflow went from 3,716 to -2,389 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -2,139 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 788 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -147 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 1,887 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet leverage higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-191,506 -203,611 -204,667 -213,734 -221,187
- Non cash assets growth declined 4.4% to 3.5% in the first quarter. Average growth is 3.7% now.
- Syahriah growth declined 5.0% to 2.3% in the first quarter. Average growth is 4.5% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 1.9% to 1.9% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 1.9% now.
Capital raised flat , a 7% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
565, 513, 513, -142, -142
- BRIS 13 quarters capital raised was flat at -142 billion rupiah in the first quarter but will be 1,053 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 61,890 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.23 X assets with a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 7,377 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 7% higher target price of 1,550 rupiah.