⚡ 91% Cheaper — But Bills Are Rising?
July 26, 2025 – SharpFokus Brief: Cashflow Over Stories
They said 91% of new renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels.
So why are electricity prices still rising almost everywhere?
The figure comes from a model of lifetime cost per unit of electricity — not from what households, businesses, or governments are actually paying.
It’s a bit like those companies that claim “profit” by excluding half their expenses.
On paper it looks efficient. In cash, not so much.
⸻
🔍 The Real Numbers
Even with over 40% of global electricity now from clean sources, retail prices are still heading up:
• US retail electricity: +6.7% YoY
• Australia: +32% over the past decade
• Europe: Grid costs, taxes, and backup charges continue rising
• Indonesia & SE Asia: High growth, high infrastructure costs
⸻
💡 What the Model Misses
The “91% cheaper” story doesn’t include:
• 💸 Grid upgrades and new transmission
• ⚠️ Backup power for cloudy or windless days
• 🔋 Storage for evening demand
• ⏰ Timing mismatches between supply and need
• 🏛️ Subsidies, taxes, and policy overlays
It’s not that renewables don’t work — it’s that they don’t reduce cash outflows the way the headline implies.
As Charlie Munger said:
“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.”
And the incentive here is to make renewables look cheap — even when your electricity bill says otherwise.
⸻
✅ Our Take
SharpFokus follows cashflow, not slogans.
If cash out exceeds cash in — whether in a business, a government, or a power grid — the system is under pressure, no matter how good it looks on a PowerPoint slide.
⸻
📊 Want to see what this looks like in company data?
Explore the latest CFROA and market value insights on US and Indonesia stocks.
🔗 Subscribe here: sharpfokus.com/subscribe
⸻
🆓 This week’s free example: DCII.jk — Indonesia’s data center darling.
Cashflow was slightly positive in the first half, but 12-month CFROA is still negative at –2%.
Meanwhile, the market value equivalent is sky high at 889%.
(We promised one free company a week — and we mean it.)
July 26, 2025 – SharpFokus Brief: Cashflow Over Stories
They said 91% of new renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels.
So why are electricity prices still rising almost everywhere?
The figure comes from a model of lifetime cost per unit of electricity — not from what households, businesses, or governments are actually paying.
It’s a bit like those companies that claim “profit” by excluding half their expenses.
On paper it looks efficient. In cash, not so much.
⸻
🔍 The Real Numbers
Even with over 40% of global electricity now from clean sources, retail prices are still heading up:
• US retail electricity: +6.7% YoY
• Australia: +32% over the past decade
• Europe: Grid costs, taxes, and backup charges continue rising
• Indonesia & SE Asia: High growth, high infrastructure costs
⸻
💡 What the Model Misses
The “91% cheaper” story doesn’t include:
• 💸 Grid upgrades and new transmission
• ⚠️ Backup power for cloudy or windless days
• 🔋 Storage for evening demand
• ⏰ Timing mismatches between supply and need
• 🏛️ Subsidies, taxes, and policy overlays
It’s not that renewables don’t work — it’s that they don’t reduce cash outflows the way the headline implies.
As Charlie Munger said:
“Show me the incentive and I’ll show you the outcome.”
And the incentive here is to make renewables look cheap — even when your electricity bill says otherwise.
⸻
✅ Our Take
SharpFokus follows cashflow, not slogans.
If cash out exceeds cash in — whether in a business, a government, or a power grid — the system is under pressure, no matter how good it looks on a PowerPoint slide.
⸻
📊 Want to see what this looks like in company data?
Explore the latest CFROA and market value insights on US and Indonesia stocks.
🔗 Subscribe here: sharpfokus.com/subscribe
⸻
🆓 This week’s free example: DCII.jk — Indonesia’s data center darling.
Cashflow was slightly positive in the first half, but 12-month CFROA is still negative at –2%.
Meanwhile, the market value equivalent is sky high at 889%.
(We promised one free company a week — and we mean it.)