🚬 A Puff of Smoke
Sharpfokus Brief — September 18, 2025
We noted in a Brief a few months ago that while smoking is not necessarily good for you, it’s no worse than other things, so smokers don’t necessarily die younger than average.
There has been a war on smoking everywhere, but ultimately, as often happens with restrictions, it has led to a rise in illegal cigarette activity which doesn’t really help anyone (legally).
Now in places like London there are some signs of a return to smoking, a rise.
Cigarette stocks have jumped this year — BTI is up 50% in 2025, and here HMSP.jk & GGRM.jk are up 50% in the last month!
📌 And with the new Finance Minister in Indonesia pledging to reduce illegal cigarettes, it’s possible governments may become less punitive on the sector — since earlier harsh measures often fueled the illegal trade instead of curbing smoking.
Interesting signs for the sector… we shall be closely watching the Cashflows.
🔗 Upgrade: sharpfokus.com/subscribe
Data, not advice
Sharpfokus Brief — September 18, 2025
We noted in a Brief a few months ago that while smoking is not necessarily good for you, it’s no worse than other things, so smokers don’t necessarily die younger than average.
There has been a war on smoking everywhere, but ultimately, as often happens with restrictions, it has led to a rise in illegal cigarette activity which doesn’t really help anyone (legally).
Now in places like London there are some signs of a return to smoking, a rise.
Cigarette stocks have jumped this year — BTI is up 50% in 2025, and here HMSP.jk & GGRM.jk are up 50% in the last month!
📌 And with the new Finance Minister in Indonesia pledging to reduce illegal cigarettes, it’s possible governments may become less punitive on the sector — since earlier harsh measures often fueled the illegal trade instead of curbing smoking.
Interesting signs for the sector… we shall be closely watching the Cashflows.
🔗 Upgrade: sharpfokus.com/subscribe
Data, not advice