📉 Tech: Inflation’s Last Stop
Sharpfokus Brief — September 1, 2025
For decades inflation drifted downwards — even here in Indonesia, it went all the way to zero. That helped technology, the ultimate downstream sector, which thrived when costs stayed low and margins could expand.
But inflation has now turned back above zero. It’s not accelerating, but it’s not falling anymore. And we are starting to see the effect in cashflow returns.
Companies like GOOD, AMZN, META, even NVDA are showing declining CFROA as they spend more. MSFT is flat. AAPL has improved, but only thanks to investment gains rather than core cashflow.
The next stage could be a shift in cashflow returns away from tech, and back towards midstream and upstream sectors — commodities, energy, industrials — and that may pull share performance with it.
Free US Data 📊 (CFROA 2024 vs 2025)
• NVDA: 39% → 38%
• MSFT: 10% → 10%
• AAPL: 33% → 39%
• GOOG: 18% → 12%
• AMZN: 3% → 0%
• META: 16% → 9%
To follow cashflow returns ➝ Sharpfokus.com/subscribe
Data, not advice
⸻
📉 Teknologi: Pemberhentian Terakhir Inflasi
Sharpfokus Brief — 1 September 2025
Selama beberapa dekade, inflasi terus menurun — bahkan di Indonesia sempat menyentuh nol. Itu memberi keuntungan besar bagi teknologi, sektor paling hilir, yang berkembang saat biaya rendah dan margin bisa melebar.
Namun kini inflasi kembali di atas nol. Tidak melonjak, tetapi juga tidak turun lagi. Dan dampaknya mulai terlihat pada imbal hasil arus kas.
Perusahaan seperti GOOD, AMZN, META, bahkan NVDA menunjukkan CFROA yang menurun karena pengeluaran meningkat. MSFT datar. AAPL naik, tetapi hanya karena keuntungan investasi, bukan arus kas inti.
Tahap berikutnya bisa jadi pergeseran imbal hasil arus kas dari teknologi ke sektor midstream dan upstream — komoditas, energi, industri — yang mungkin juga akan memengaruhi kinerja saham.
Data AS Gratis 📊 (CFROA 2024 vs 2025)
• NVDA: 39% → 38%
• MSFT: 10% → 10%
• AAPL: 33% → 39%
• GOOG: 18% → 12%
• AMZN: 3% → 0%
• META: 16% → 9%
Ikuti data arus kas ➝ Sharpfokus.com/subscribe
Data, bukan nasihat
Sharpfokus Brief — September 1, 2025
For decades inflation drifted downwards — even here in Indonesia, it went all the way to zero. That helped technology, the ultimate downstream sector, which thrived when costs stayed low and margins could expand.
But inflation has now turned back above zero. It’s not accelerating, but it’s not falling anymore. And we are starting to see the effect in cashflow returns.
Companies like GOOD, AMZN, META, even NVDA are showing declining CFROA as they spend more. MSFT is flat. AAPL has improved, but only thanks to investment gains rather than core cashflow.
The next stage could be a shift in cashflow returns away from tech, and back towards midstream and upstream sectors — commodities, energy, industrials — and that may pull share performance with it.
Free US Data 📊 (CFROA 2024 vs 2025)
• NVDA: 39% → 38%
• MSFT: 10% → 10%
• AAPL: 33% → 39%
• GOOG: 18% → 12%
• AMZN: 3% → 0%
• META: 16% → 9%
To follow cashflow returns ➝ Sharpfokus.com/subscribe
Data, not advice
⸻
📉 Teknologi: Pemberhentian Terakhir Inflasi
Sharpfokus Brief — 1 September 2025
Selama beberapa dekade, inflasi terus menurun — bahkan di Indonesia sempat menyentuh nol. Itu memberi keuntungan besar bagi teknologi, sektor paling hilir, yang berkembang saat biaya rendah dan margin bisa melebar.
Namun kini inflasi kembali di atas nol. Tidak melonjak, tetapi juga tidak turun lagi. Dan dampaknya mulai terlihat pada imbal hasil arus kas.
Perusahaan seperti GOOD, AMZN, META, bahkan NVDA menunjukkan CFROA yang menurun karena pengeluaran meningkat. MSFT datar. AAPL naik, tetapi hanya karena keuntungan investasi, bukan arus kas inti.
Tahap berikutnya bisa jadi pergeseran imbal hasil arus kas dari teknologi ke sektor midstream dan upstream — komoditas, energi, industri — yang mungkin juga akan memengaruhi kinerja saham.
Data AS Gratis 📊 (CFROA 2024 vs 2025)
• NVDA: 39% → 38%
• MSFT: 10% → 10%
• AAPL: 33% → 39%
• GOOG: 18% → 12%
• AMZN: 3% → 0%
• META: 16% → 9%
Ikuti data arus kas ➝ Sharpfokus.com/subscribe
Data, bukan nasihat