BP Sales grew 26%
Current 40 Target 81 + 105%
Feb 10, 2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 26%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
40% -3% 38% -19% 26%
50,554 ; 49,258 ; 67,866 ; 55,011 ; 69,257 million dollars
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
15% 20% 21% 2% 31%
2,870 ; -18,805 ; 11,558 ; -774 ; 13,320 million dollars
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
6,116 ; 8,210 ; 10,863 ; 8,288 ; 13,571 million dollars
-1,332 ; -1,883 ; -2,509 ; -2,573 ; -6,748 million dollars
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
30,681 ; 34,414 ; 33,108 ; 29,304 ; 29,195 million dollars
196,833 ; 216,993 ; 217,570 ; 210,149 ; 205,130 million dollars
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1,871 ; -256 ; 5,833 ; 5,115 ; 2,681 million dollars
2,868 ; 2,725 ; 3,413 ; 4,082 ; 4,428 million dollars
Feb 10, 2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 37%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 23% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 24% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -148% of market cap
Sales grew 26%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
40% -3% 38% -19% 26%
50,554 ; 49,258 ; 67,866 ; 55,011 ; 69,257 million dollars
- Sales grew 26% in the fourth quarter to 69,257 million dollars .
- This brings the quarterly average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 71,284 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
15% 20% 21% 2% 31%
2,870 ; -18,805 ; 11,558 ; -774 ; 13,320 million dollars
- The cash profit margin went from 2% to 31% net profit from -774 to 13,320 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average margin is at 19% now.
- We use a 19% cash profit margin to predict a 8,850 million dollars net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
6,116 ; 8,210 ; 10,863 ; 8,288 ; 13,571 million dollars
-1,332 ; -1,883 ; -2,509 ; -2,573 ; -6,748 million dollars
- Free cashflow went from 5,715 to 6,823 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -6,748 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6,805 million dollars now.
- We assume -3,428 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 9,398 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
30,681 ; 34,414 ; 33,108 ; 29,304 ; 29,195 million dollars
196,833 ; 216,993 ; 217,570 ; 210,149 ; 205,130 million dollars
- Cash declined 29,304 to 29,195 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 210,149 to 205,130 million dollars so net cash was up -180,845 to -175,935 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -21,846 million dollars equity payout -15,746 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -160,189 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1,871 ; -256 ; 5,833 ; 5,115 ; 2,681 million dollars
2,868 ; 2,725 ; 3,413 ; 4,082 ; 4,428 million dollars
- BP paid 7,109 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2,681 million dollars liabilities 4,428 million dollars equity, will pay 37,592 million dollars this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 119,148 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.42 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 18% yield forecast.
- Our cashflow forecast is 37,592 million dollars which means a 3 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 105% higher target price 81 dollars.
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