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Picture
Other shares here

BOLT, a bit too EXPENSIVE
​Current 940 Target 843 -10%

WATCH THE VIDEO
January 15 2022
1 minute read
​
Sales grew 16%
  • Sales grew 16% in the third quarter to 305 billion rupiah which is up 52% from a year ago.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 12% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 387 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Costs lower, profit up
  • The cash cost ratio went from -99% to -89% profit from -10 to 21 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The Cashflow cost ratio is at -84% now.
  • We use a higher -92% cost ratio to predict a 18 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
​
BUT Cashflow lower on investment spending
  • Free cashflow went from -18 to -23 billion rupiah in the third quarter with higher -69 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 10 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 25 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
​
Balance sheet higher leverage
  • Cash declined 7 to 6 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 455 to 531 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -447 to -524 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -88 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -436 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Valuation, expensive a -10% lower target price
  • BOLT capital raised from the last 19 quarters worsened -52 to -74 billion rupiah in the third quarter​ with 22 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be positive 14 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 2,203 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s expensive at 1.77 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 99 billion rupiah which means an 22 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price of 843 rupiah.
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