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BOLT, a bit too EXPENSIVE
Current 940 Target 843 -10%
January 15 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 16%
Costs lower, profit up
BUT Cashflow lower on investment spending
Balance sheet higher leverage
Valuation, expensive a -10% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 16%
- Sales grew 16% in the third quarter to 305 billion rupiah which is up 52% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 12% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 387 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs lower, profit up
- The cash cost ratio went from -99% to -89% profit from -10 to 21 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -84% now.
- We use a higher -92% cost ratio to predict a 18 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
BUT Cashflow lower on investment spending
- Free cashflow went from -18 to -23 billion rupiah in the third quarter with higher -69 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 10 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 25 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher leverage
- Cash declined 7 to 6 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 455 to 531 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -447 to -524 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -88 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -436 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, expensive a -10% lower target price
- BOLT capital raised from the last 19 quarters worsened -52 to -74 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 22 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be positive 14 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,203 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s expensive at 1.77 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 99 billion rupiah which means an 22 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a -10% lower target price of 843 rupiah.