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Picture

BOLA positive but expensive

BOLA.jk Current 264 Target 188 -29%

12/5/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 63%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -4% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -2% of market cap
  • Latest net cash 6% of market cap

Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
214% 115% -31% 27% -14%
52 111 77 98 84
  • Sales declined -14% in the third quarter to 84 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 24% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 92 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
165% 120% 63% -17% 13%
46 79 46 -20 8
  • The cash margin went from -17% to 13% profit from -20 to 8 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 45% now.
  • We use a 13% cash margin to predict a -4 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-13 -22 -13 -29 4
52 -5 -7 -7 14
  • Free cashflow went from -36 to 18 billion rupiah in the third quarter with positive 14 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -16 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 6 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
193 194 187 139 159
73 62 86 69 63
  • Cash increased 139 to 159 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 69 to 63 billion rupiah so net cash was up 70 to 96 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -12 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 121 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1 -3 -1 0 -7
-12 -25 -12 12 5
  • BOLA.jk (raised) -2 billion rupiah in the third quarter -7 billion rupiah liabilities 5 billion rupiah equity, will pay 12 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 1,584 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.08 X assets with a 23 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 25 billion rupiah which means a 63 X valuation. A 45 X valuation gives a -29% lower target price 188 rupiah.
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