BOLA more negative cashflow
BOLA Current 370 Target 177 -52%
Sep 7, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-13% 214% 115% -31% 27%
17 52 111 77 98
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-180% -100% -57% -36% -118%
22 46 79 46 -20
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-76 -13 -22 -13 -29
113 52 -5 -7 -7
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
140 193 194 187 139
79 73 62 86 69
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-411 -423 -451 -464 -452
0 -1 -3 -1 0
0 -12 -25 -12 12
Sep 7, 2022
1 minute read
- BOLA last 12 months sales growth 25X average + 493%
- BOLA last 12 months cash flow -2% of market cap
- BOLA last 12 months Capital -2% of market cap
- BOLA latest net cash + 3% of market cap
Sales grew 27%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-13% 214% 115% -31% 27%
17 52 111 77 98
- Sales grew 27% in the second quarter to 98 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -8% now.
- This brings the average to 81% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 105 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-180% -100% -57% -36% -118%
22 46 79 46 -20
- The cash cost ratio went from -36% to -118% profit from 46 to -20 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use a -85% cost ratio to predict a 12 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-76 -13 -22 -13 -29
113 52 -5 -7 -7
- Free cashflow went from -19 to -36 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -11 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 8 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
140 193 194 187 139
79 73 62 86 69
- Cash declined 187 to 139 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 86 to 69 billion rupiah so net cash was down 101 to 70 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -13 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 100 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-411 -423 -451 -464 -452
0 -1 -3 -1 0
0 -12 -25 -12 12
- BOLA cumulative capital improved -464 to -452 billion rupiah with 0 & + 12 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -439 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,220 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.7 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 30 billion rupiah (vs -38 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 73 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a -52% lower target price 177 rupiah.
