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BOLA, a -59% lower target price
Current 685 Target 281 -59%
November 26th 2021
1 minute read
Sales jumped 214%
Costs still very low, but above 100% in cashflow…
Cashflow, positive but from investment gains
Balance sheet, higher net cash
Valuation higher capital raised, a -59%
lower target price
1 minute read
Sales jumped 214%
- Sales jumped 214% in the third quarter to 52 billion rupiah vs our 41 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 55% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% to bring sales to 68 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs still very low, but above 100% in cashflow…
- The cash cost ratio was at -17% in the third quarter giving a 46 billion rupiah net profit.
- But the average Cashflow cost ratio is at -117% now.
- We use -114% cost ratio to predict a -12 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, positive but from investment gains
- Free cashflow was 40 billion rupiah in the third quarter but with a positive 52 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 35 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a -10 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher net cash
- Cash increased from 140 to 193 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 79 to 73 billion rupiah so net cash jumped from 61 to 120 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be 86 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation higher capital raised, a -59%
lower target price
- BOLA capital from the last 17 quarters worsened to -423 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be -458 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,110 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 6.2 X assets with a -14 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our sales forecast is 241 billion rupiah which means an 17 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a -59% lower target price of 281 rupiah.