BNLI cashflow negative again
BNLI.jk Current 1,150 Target 993 -14%
11/29/2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months sales growth + 8%
Last 12 months cash flow -17% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
Latest net cash -366% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-5% 1% 2% 1% 5%
3,332 3,355 3,413 3,446 3,611
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
35% 43% 32% 33% 36%
192 400 750 679 814
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
5,308 7,185 4,329 -10,487 -3,976
-3,664 -388 -3,955 1,770 -1,575
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
37,938 43,860 44,401 35,420 30,390
182,821 197,765 203,709 192,600 182,825
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-136 941 2 -1 -1
0 -135 0 308 0
11/29/2022
1 minute read
Last 12 months sales growth + 8%
Last 12 months cash flow -17% of market cap
Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
Latest net cash -366% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-5% 1% 2% 1% 5%
3,332 3,355 3,413 3,446 3,611
- Sales grew 5% in the third quarter to 3,611 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,682 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
35% 43% 32% 33% 36%
192 400 750 679 814
- The cash margin went from 33% to 36% profit from 679 to 814 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 36% now.
- We use a 36% cash margin to predict a 896 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
5,308 7,185 4,329 -10,487 -3,976
-3,664 -388 -3,955 1,770 -1,575
- Free cashflow went from -8,717 to -5,551 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,575 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,774 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -388 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 898 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
37,938 43,860 44,401 35,420 30,390
182,821 197,765 203,709 192,600 182,825
- Cash declined 35,420 to 30,390 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 192,600 to 182,825 billion rupiah so net cash was up -157,180 to -152,435 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,037 billion rupiah equity payout -73 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -149,880 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-136 941 2 -1 -1
0 -135 0 308 0
- BNLI.jk (raised) -1 billion rupiah in the third quarter -1 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will pay 1,110 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 41,608 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.19 X assets with a 70 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,592 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a -14% lower target price 993 rupiah.