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BNII less dull as cashflow starts to rise
BNII Current 304 Target 331 +9%
March 8 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters
-3% -2% -8% 1% -4%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-70% -73% -72% -65% -55%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
335, 798, 716, 1,184, 430
Balance sheet faster growth
Last 5 quarters growth assets, liabilities
-5.5% 5.2% -12.4% 1.5% 7.1%
-3.1% 0.4% -8.4% -1.5% 7.1%
Capital paid lower, a 9% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,522, 6,271, 5,060, 6,536, 5,460
March 8 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -4%
Last 5 quarters
-3% -2% -8% 1% -4%
- Sales declined -4% in the fourth quarter to 2,637 billion rupiah & were down -13% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to -3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,054 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-70% -73% -72% -65% -55%
- The cash cost ratio went from -65% to -55% profit from 560 to 594 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -66% now.
- We use the average -66% cost ratio to predict a 530 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
335, 798, 716, 1,184, 430
- Free cashflow went from 1,184 to 430 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -67 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 782 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -67 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 965 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet faster growth
Last 5 quarters growth assets, liabilities
-5.5% 5.2% -12.4% 1.5% 7.1%
-3.1% 0.4% -8.4% -1.5% 7.1%
- Non cash assets growth increased -1.5% to 7.1% in the fourth quarter. Average growth is -0.4% now.
- liabilities growth increased -6.1% to 11.2% in the fourth quarter. Average growth is -0.8% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.0% to 1.8% in the fourth quarter. Average sales to assets is 1.9% now.
Capital paid lower, a 9% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,522, 6,271, 5,060, 6,536, 5,460
- BNII 16 quarters capital paid worsened 6,536 to 5,460 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter. with 1,062 billion rupiah new liabilities & 14 billion rupiah new equity but will improve to 6,391 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 23,169 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.14 X assets with a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,600 billion rupiah which means an 6 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 9% higher target price of 331 rupiah.