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BNII less dull as assets have started to grow
BNII Current 262 Target 294 + 12%
Jul 6, 2022
1 minute read
Non cash other assets grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
5% -12% -1% 7% 1%
Sales to assets ratio declined to 1.77%
Last 5 quarters
1.90% 1.99% 2.04% 1.82% 1.77%
The cash costs ratio declined to -72%
Last 5 quarters
-73% -72% -65% -55% -72%
Free cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,516, 6,461, -4,070, 3,955, -9,082
Capital paid increased, a 12% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,271 5,060 6,536 5,460 6,659
Jul 6, 2022
1 minute read
Non cash other assets grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
5% -12% -1% 7% 1%
- Non cash other assets grew 1% to 145,738 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2022.
- This brings the average growth to -1% for the last 4 quarters.
- We predict average growth of 2% a quarter in the next 12 months to bring other assets back to 158,838 billion rupiah by the first quarter 2023.
Sales to assets ratio declined to 1.77%
Last 5 quarters
1.90% 1.99% 2.04% 1.82% 1.77%
- The sales to assets ratio declined 1.82% to 1.77% in the first quarter 2022.
- Sales declined 2,637 to 2,574 billion rupiah, -3% vs out 2,663 billion rupiah forecast.
- We use a 2.0% ratio to predict sales of 3,242 billion rupiah by the first quarter 2023.
The cash costs ratio declined to -72%
Last 5 quarters
-73% -72% -65% -55% -72%
- The cash costs ratio declined -55% to -72% in the first quarter 2022.
- Profit declined 594 to 396 billion rupiah despite lower 477 to 212 billion rupiah provisions.
- The average cost ratio is -66%; we use -66% costs & -374 billion rupiah provisions to predict a profit ot 609 billion rupiah by the first quarter 2023.
Free cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,516, 6,461, -4,070, 3,955, -9,082
- Free cashflow went negative 3,955 to -9,082 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2022.
- Average Cashflow is -2,737 for the last 4 quarters. while the long term average is 322 billion rupiah for 17 quarters.
- With faster asset growth, higher sales & steady costs, free cashflow will be 318 billion rupiah by the first quarter 2023.
Capital paid increased, a 12% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
6,271 5,060 6,536 5,460 6,659
- BNII capital paid increased 5,460 to 6,659 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2022, with + 1,207 billion rupiah liabilities, -8 billion rupiah equity & will be 6,951 billion rupiah by the first quarter 2023.
- At the current market value 19,968 billion rupiah based on forecasts it’s at 0.11 X assets with a 1% dividend yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,122 billion rupiah which is an 18 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a 12% higher target price 294 rupiah.
