BNII negative growth
BNII.jk Current 244 Target 205 -16%
11/21/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -37%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% -4% -2% 27% -37%
2,754 2,637 2,574 3,267 2,042
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-70% -66% -66% -68% -67%
560 594 396 293 414
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-5,384 10,171 -3,556 -1,087 -7,632
1,314 -6,216 -5,526 4,397 3,521
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
19,029 24,255 14,008 19,621 14,779
125,983 140,033 131,290 138,824 136,051
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,484 -1,062 1,207 -2,609 854
-8 -14 -8 495 -13
11/21/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -26%
- Last 12 months cash flow -32% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -6% of market cap
- Latest net cash -652% of market cap
Sales declined -37%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
1% -4% -2% 27% -37%
2,754 2,637 2,574 3,267 2,042
- Sales declined -37% in the third quarter to 2,042 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to -4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,898 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-70% -66% -66% -68% -67%
560 594 396 293 414
- The cash cost ratio went from -68% to -67% profit from 293 to 414 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -67% now.
- We use a -67% cost ratio to predict a 566 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
-5,384 10,171 -3,556 -1,087 -7,632
1,314 -6,216 -5,526 4,397 3,521
- Free cashflow went negative from 3,311 to -4,112 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 3,521 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,482 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -502 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 390 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
19,029 24,255 14,008 19,621 14,779
125,983 140,033 131,290 138,824 136,051
- Cash declined 19,621 to 14,779 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 138,824 to 136,051 billion rupiah so net cash was down -119,203 to -121,272 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -402 billion rupiah equity payout -54 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -120,113 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,484 -1,062 1,207 -2,609 854
-8 -14 -8 495 -13
- BNII.jk paid 840 billion rupiah in the third quarter 854 billion rupiah liabilities -13 billion rupiah equity & will pay 456 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 18,597 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.11 X assets with a 115 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,561 billion rupiah which means a 12 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 205 rupiah.
