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BNGA looking quite sharp at 5X forecast cashflow
BNGA Current 1,065 Target 1,491 + 40%
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters
-5% 3% -3% 9% -10%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-75% -71% -74% -75% -68%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
-5,785 1,438 9,111 15,802 -10,661
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters
-208,945 -224,939 -221,308 -220,383 -225,713
Capital paid worsened , a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
14,129, 15,439, 15,592, 15,925, 15,174
Apr 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -10%
Last 5 quarters
-5% 3% -3% 9% -10%
- Sales declined -10% in the first quarter to 4,584 billion rupiah -2% below our 4700 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring receipts to 5,104 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-75% -71% -74% -75% -68%
- The Cashflow cost ratio went from -75% to -68% Profit 949 to 1,209 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -72% now.
- We use -68% cost ratio to predict a 1,620 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
-5,785 1,438 9,111 15,802 -10,661
- Free cashflow went from 15,802 to -10,661 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -1,182 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3,923 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -251 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 1,370 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters
-208,945 -224,939 -221,308 -220,383 -225,713
- Non cash assets growth improved -0.0% to 2.5% in the first quarter. Average growth is 2.0% now.
- Liabilities growth declined 5.8% to -1.7% in the first quarter. Average growth is 3.3% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.1% to 1.8% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 1.9% now.
Capital paid worsened , a 40% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
14,129, 15,439, 15,592, 15,925, 15,174
- BNGA capital from the last 25 quarters worsened 15,925 to 15,174 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with 751 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 15,493 in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 26,549 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.09 X assets with a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 5,312 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 40% higher target price 1,491 rupiah.