BNGA sales up
BNGA Current 1,145 Target 1,468 + 28%
October 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% -4% -1% 2% 1%
4,804 4,634 4,584 4,690 4,748
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio provisions & profit billion rupiah
-55% -52% -43% -43% -52%
948 1,067 1,139 961 714
1,017 949 1,209 1,358 1,324
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
10,367 15,122 -9,480 -5,958 -5,536
-1,256 680 -1,182 5,423 122
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash assets & liabilities billion rupiah
31,547 47,016 37,106 34,667 27,490
295,396 310,787 307,425 310,980 306,968
252,855 267,399 262,819 267,851 263,459
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
15,592 15,927 15,176 17,079 18,954
153 335 -751 -443 1,875
0 0 0 2,346 -0
October 27, 2022
1 minute read
- BNGA last 12 months sales growth -1%
- BNGA last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
- BNGA last 12 months Capital + 12% of market cap
- BNGA latest net cash -830% of market cap
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% -4% -1% 2% 1%
4,804 4,634 4,584 4,690 4,748
- Sales grew 1% in the third quarter to 4,748 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,039 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio provisions & profit billion rupiah
-55% -52% -43% -43% -52%
948 1,067 1,139 961 714
1,017 949 1,209 1,358 1,324
- The cash cost ratio went from -43% to -52% profit from 1,358 to 1,324 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -48% now.
- We use the average -48% cost ratio to predict a 1,651 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
10,367 15,122 -9,480 -5,958 -5,536
-1,256 680 -1,182 5,423 122
- Free cashflow went from -536 to -5,414 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 122 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -202 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,256 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 1,302 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash assets & liabilities billion rupiah
31,547 47,016 37,106 34,667 27,490
295,396 310,787 307,425 310,980 306,968
252,855 267,399 262,819 267,851 263,459
- Cash declined 34,667 to 27,490 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 267,851 to 263,459 billion rupiah so net cash was down -233,184 to -235,969 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -1,881 billion rupiah equity -11 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -232,643 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
15,592 15,927 15,176 17,079 18,954
153 335 -751 -443 1,875
0 0 0 2,346 -0
- BNGA cumulative capital improved 17,079 to 18,954 billion rupiah with + 1,875 & -0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 20,835 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 28,430 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at X assets with a years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 5,207 billion rupiah (vs -809 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 28% higher target price 1,468 rupiah.
