BNGA at 4X cashflow
BNGA Current 1,115 Target 1,836 + 65%
Aug 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-3% 3% -4% -1% 2%
4,652 4,804 4,634 4,584 4,690
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-52% -55% -52% -43% -43%
1,136 1,017 949 1,209 1,358
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
13,556 10,367 15,122 -9,480 -5,958
-12,118 -1,256 680 -1,182 5,423
Non cash assets to liabilities up
Last 5 quarters non cash assets & liabilities billion rupiah
266,342 263,849 263,771 270,319 276,313
247,528 252,855 267,399 262,819 267,851
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
15,439 15,592 15,927 15,176 17,079
211 153 335 -751 -443
1,099 0 0 0 2,346
Aug 24, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 49% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
- Latest non cash assets to liabilities up to 103%.
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-3% 3% -4% -1% 2%
4,652 4,804 4,634 4,584 4,690
- Sales grew 2% in the second quarter to 4,690 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 3% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,927 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-52% -55% -52% -43% -43%
1,136 1,017 949 1,209 1,358
- The cash cost ratio went from -43% to -43% profit from 1,209 to 1,358 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -48% now.
- We use the average -48% cost ratio to predict a 1,230 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
13,556 10,367 15,122 -9,480 -5,958
-12,118 -1,256 680 -1,182 5,423
- Free cashflow went from -10,661 to -536 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 5,423 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3,429 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -586 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 1,908 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Non cash assets to liabilities up
Last 5 quarters non cash assets & liabilities billion rupiah
266,342 263,849 263,771 270,319 276,313
247,528 252,855 267,399 262,819 267,851
- Non cash assets increased 270,319 to 276,313 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 262,819 to 267,851 billion rupiah .
- So the ratio of non cash assets to liabilities was up slightly to 103% .
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
15,439 15,592 15,927 15,176 17,079
211 153 335 -751 -443
1,099 0 0 0 2,346
- BNGA cumulative capital improved 15,176 to 17,079 billion rupiah with -443 & + 2,346 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 19,897 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 27,806 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a 10% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 7,633 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 65% higher target price 1,836 rupiah.
