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BMTR super sharp with a 13% yield forecast

BMTR Current 282 Target 767 + 172%

Jun 8, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
6% 21% -18% 8% -3%
  • Sales declined -3% in the first quarter to 3,400 billion rupiah 2% above our 3,342 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 2% growth.
  • We predict faster average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,868 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
​
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-76% -69% -67% -72% -68%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -72% to -68% profit from 543 to 634 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -69% now.
  • We use the average -69% cost ratio to predict a 753 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
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Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
791, 241, 564, 132, 357
  • Free cashflow went from 132 to 357 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -572 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 323 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -572 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 620 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
​
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-10,204 -9,779 -9,298 -8,865 -8,241
  • Cash increased 1,365 to 1,494 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 10,230 to 9,735 billion rupiah so net cash improved -8,865 to -8,241 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -608 billion rupiah equity payout -1,806 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -6,318 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid improved , a 172% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,418, 2,480, 2,489, 2,919, 3,141
  • BMTR 25 quarters capital paid improved 2,919 to 3,141 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -222 liabilities payment & will be 5,555 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 4,611 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.13 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 13% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 2,508 billion rupiah which means a 2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 172% higher target price 767 rupiah.
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