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BMTR, a 77% higher target price
Current 266 Target 471 +77%

December 8th 2021
1 minute read
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Sales declined -18%
  • Sales declined -18% in the third quarter to 3,245 billion rupiah vs our 3,798 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,891 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs 2 points lower, profit lower
  • The cash cost ratio was 2 points lower at -67% in the third quarter giving a lower 697 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -64% now.
  • We use average -72% cost ratio to predict a higher 701 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow doubled
  • Free cashflow was 2X higher at 564 billion rupiah in the third quarter from working capital & despite higher -987 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 487 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -622 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher costs & higher sales gives a 459 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, lower leverage again
  • Cash increased from 1,093 to 1,670 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased slightly from 10,872 to 10,968 billion rupiah so net cash improved further from -9,779 to -9,298 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -753 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -8,475 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, very cheap, a 77% higher target price
  • BMTR capital from the last 23 quarters was flat at 2,489 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be 4,065 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 4,350 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.12 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 17% yield.
  • Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 1,541 billion rupiah which means an 3 X valuation.
  • A 5 X valuation gives a 77% target price of 471 rupiah.
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