BMTR at 2X cashflow
BMTR Current 360 Target 812 + 125%
Sep 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
21% -18% 8% -3% 4%
3,956 3,245 3,498 3,400 3,528
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-69% -67% -72% -68% -71%
815 697 543 634 623
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
759 1,572 560 923 817
-524 -987 -435 -572 -409
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,093 1,670 1,365 1,494 917
10,872 10,968 10,230 9,735 9,432
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,485 2,494 2,924 3,146 3,619
62 -56 428 222 473
0 65 2 0 0
Sep 1, 2022
1 minute read
- BMTR last 12 months sales growth below average -11%
- BMTR last 12 months cash flow 6X average + 25% of market cap
- BMTR last 12 months Capital 19X average + 19% of market cap
- BMTR latest net cash -145% of market cap
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
21% -18% 8% -3% 4%
3,956 3,245 3,498 3,400 3,528
- Sales grew 4% in the second quarter to 3,528 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 5% now.
- This brings the average to -2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,676 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-69% -67% -72% -68% -71%
815 697 543 634 623
- The cash cost ratio went from -68% to -71% profit from 634 to 623 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -70% now.
- We use the average -70% cost ratio to predict a 726 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
759 1,572 560 923 817
-524 -987 -435 -572 -409
- Free cashflow went from 351 to 408 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -409 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 367 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -409 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 664 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,093 1,670 1,365 1,494 917
10,872 10,968 10,230 9,735 9,432
- Cash declined 1,494 to 917 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 9,735 to 9,432 billion rupiah so net cash was down -8,241 to -8,515 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -542 billion rupiah equity payout -886 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -6,402 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
2,485 2,494 2,924 3,146 3,619
62 -56 428 222 473
0 65 2 0 0
- BMTR cumulative capital improved 3,146 to 3,619 billion rupiah with + 473 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 5,047 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,887 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.16 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,655 billion rupiah (vs 1,457 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 125% higher target price 812 rupiah.
