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BMTR, a 77% higher target price
Current 266 Target 471 +77%
December 8th 2021
1 minute read
Sales declined -18%
Costs 2 points lower, profit lower
Cashflow doubled
Balance sheet, lower leverage again
Valuation, very cheap, a 77% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales declined -18%
- Sales declined -18% in the third quarter to 3,245 billion rupiah vs our 3,798 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,891 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 2 points lower, profit lower
- The cash cost ratio was 2 points lower at -67% in the third quarter giving a lower 697 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -64% now.
- We use average -72% cost ratio to predict a higher 701 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow doubled
- Free cashflow was 2X higher at 564 billion rupiah in the third quarter from working capital & despite higher -987 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 487 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -622 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher costs & higher sales gives a 459 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage again
- Cash increased from 1,093 to 1,670 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased slightly from 10,872 to 10,968 billion rupiah so net cash improved further from -9,779 to -9,298 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -753 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -8,475 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, very cheap, a 77% higher target price
- BMTR capital from the last 23 quarters was flat at 2,489 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be 4,065 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,350 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.12 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 17% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 1,541 billion rupiah which means an 3 X valuation.
- A 5 X valuation gives a 77% target price of 471 rupiah.