BMTR sales down

Current 278 Target 397 + 43%

Mar 25, 2023
1 minute read

A quick glance
  • Last 12 months sales growth -28% vs 2019 -5%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 19% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 19% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -185% of market cap
  • Latest market value to assets 0.1 X. Last 12 months cashflow to assets 2%
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Sales declined -9%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly sales
8% -3% 4% -21% -9%
3,498 ; 3,400 ; 3,528 ; 2,775 ; 2,530 billion rupiah
  • Sales declined -9% in the fourth quarter to 2,530 billion rupiah .
  • This brings the quarterly average to -7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,767 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters cash profit margin, net profit
28% 32% 29% 33% 28%
543 ; 634 ; 623 ; 491 ; 313 billion rupiah
  • The cash profit margin went from 33% to 28% net profit from 491 to 313 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average margin is at 30% now.
  • We use a 29% cash profit margin to predict a 387 billion rupiah net profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
560 ; 923 ; 817 ; 1,282 ; 73 billion rupiah
-434 ; -572 ; -409 ; -688 ; -561 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 594 to -488 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -561 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 216 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -491 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 325 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
792 ; 1,494 ; 917 ; 1,491 ; 838 billion rupiah
10,230 ; 9,735 ; 9,432 ; 8,950 ; 9,263 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 1,491 to 838 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 8,950 to 9,263 billion rupiah so net cash was down -7,459 to -8,425 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -484 billion rupiah equity payout -815 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -7,610 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
1,141 ; 6 ; -3 ; 2 ; 848 billion rupiah
-673 ; 222 ; 473 ; 533 ; -1,228 billion rupiah
  • BMTR.jk (raised) -380 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 848 billion rupiah liabilities -1,228 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,299 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 4,546 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.13 X assets with a 4% cashflow to assets 11% dividend yield forecast.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,299 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 43% higher target price 397 rupiah.