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BMTR super sharp with a 13% yield forecast
BMTR Current 282 Target 767 + 172%
Jun 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
6% 21% -18% 8% -3%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-76% -69% -67% -72% -68%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
791, 241, 564, 132, 357
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-10,204 -9,779 -9,298 -8,865 -8,241
Capital paid improved , a 172% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,418, 2,480, 2,489, 2,919, 3,141
Jun 8, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
6% 21% -18% 8% -3%
- Sales declined -3% in the first quarter to 3,400 billion rupiah 2% above our 3,342 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 2% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,868 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-76% -69% -67% -72% -68%
- The cash cost ratio went from -72% to -68% profit from 543 to 634 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -69% now.
- We use the average -69% cost ratio to predict a 753 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
791, 241, 564, 132, 357
- Free cashflow went from 132 to 357 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -572 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 323 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -572 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 620 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-10,204 -9,779 -9,298 -8,865 -8,241
- Cash increased 1,365 to 1,494 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 10,230 to 9,735 billion rupiah so net cash improved -8,865 to -8,241 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -608 billion rupiah equity payout -1,806 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -6,318 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 172% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,418, 2,480, 2,489, 2,919, 3,141
- BMTR 25 quarters capital paid improved 2,919 to 3,141 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -222 liabilities payment & will be 5,555 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,611 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.13 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,508 billion rupiah which means a 2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 172% higher target price 767 rupiah.