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BMRI, less sharp with negative cashflow but should rebound
BMRI Current 8,225 Target 12,174 + 48%
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
13% 1% 2% 11% -3%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-64% -61% -62% -62% -58%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
28,591, -9,242, 17,009, 7,907, -6,591
Balance sheet lower leverage
1,163,217, 1,186,540, 1,233,030, 1,309,868, 1,180,732
Capital paid worsened , a 48% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
2,920, 6,393, 10,925, 9,687, 7,739
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
13% 1% 2% 11% -3%
- Sales declined -3% in the first quarter to 37,610 billion rupiah -4% below our 39,217 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 40,675 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-64% -61% -62% -62% -58%
- The cash cost ratio went from -62% to -58% profit from 9,498 to 10,894 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -61% now.
- We use -61% cost ratio to predict a 11,077 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
28,591, -9,242, 17,009, 7,907, -6,591
- Free cashflow went negative from 7,907 to -6,591 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -715 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2,271 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -3,836 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 12,166 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet lower leverage
1,163,217, 1,186,540, 1,233,030, 1,309,868, 1,180,732
- Non cash assets growth declined 6.0% to 2.8% in the first quarter. Average growth is 3.7% now.
- Liabilities growth declined 5.5% to -10.9% in the first quarter. Average growth is -0.6% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.5% to 2.4% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 2.4% now.
Capital paid worsened , a 48% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
2,920, 6,393, 10,925, 9,687, 7,739
- BMRI capital from the last 29 quarters worsened 9,687 to 7,739 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with 18,765 billion rupiah new liabilities, a -16,817 billion rupiah equity payout but will be 22,772 in the in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 383,542 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.22 X assets with a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 47,309 billion rupiah which means a 8 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 48% higher target price of 12,174 rupiah.