BMRI cashflow bounces back
BMRI Current 8,275 Target 10,615 + 28%
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
34,192 34,824 38,829 37,610 38,314
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-61% -62% -62% -58% -59%
Cashflow higher, last 12 months + 11% of market cap
Last 5 quarters, billion rupiah
-9,242 17,009 7,907 -6,591 24,793
Free cashflow went from -6,591 to 24,793 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -306 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
Average quarterly Cashflow is at 10,780 billion rupiah now.
We assume -3,593 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a 12,385 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet non cash assets declined
Last 5 quarters
2.3% 3.9% 6.0% 2.9% 3.7%
Capital improved, last 12 months + 3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,814 3,999 10,120 8,172 11,883
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
34,192 34,824 38,829 37,610 38,314
- Sales grew 2% in the second quarter to 38,314 billion rupiah -0.1% below our 38,362 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 39,891 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-61% -62% -62% -58% -59%
- The cash cost ratio went from -58% to -59%, provisions from 4,062 to 3,652 billion rupiah, profit from 10,894 to 11,150 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -60% now.
- We use the average -60% cost ratio, -3,652 billion rupiah provisions to predict a 11,271 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2023.
Cashflow higher, last 12 months + 11% of market cap
Last 5 quarters, billion rupiah
-9,242 17,009 7,907 -6,591 24,793
Free cashflow went from -6,591 to 24,793 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -306 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
Average quarterly Cashflow is at 10,780 billion rupiah now.
We assume -3,593 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a 12,385 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet non cash assets declined
Last 5 quarters
2.3% 3.9% 6.0% 2.9% 3.7%
- Non cash assets growth declined 6.0% to 2.9% in the second quarter. Average growth is 3.7% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.4% to 2.3% in the second quarter. Average sales to assets is 2.4% now.
- We use 1% asset growth, 2.3% sales to assets in our forecasts.
Capital improved, last 12 months + 3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,814 3,999 10,120 8,172 11,883
- BMRI cumulative capital from the last 30 quarters improved 8,172 to 11,883 billion rupiah in the second quarter. with + 3,862 billion rupiah from liabilities -151 billion rupiah from equity & will be 20,946 in the in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 386,167 billion rupiah it’s at a forecast 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 49,539 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 28% higher target price 10,615 rupiah.
