BMHS less negative cashflow
BMHS Current 590 Target 392 -34%
September 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
0% -7% -8% 0% 10%
451 421 388 389 426
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-74% -75% -88% -84% -84%
99 86 32 41 38
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
54 25 128 25 32
-32 -36 -150 -279 -151
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
631 680 794 711 649
1,185 862 1,001 1,154 1,108
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-384 -444 -580 -752 -808
5 166 -150 -172 -56
14 -226 14 0 0
September 23, 2022
1 minute read
- BMHS last 12 months sales growth -6%
- BMHS last 12 months cash flow -8% of market cap
- BMHS last 12 months Capital -8% of market cap
- BMHS latest net cash -9% of market cap
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
0% -7% -8% 0% 10%
451 421 388 389 426
- Sales grew 10% in the second quarter to 426 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 7% now.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 452 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-74% -75% -88% -84% -84%
99 86 32 41 38
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -84% profit from declined 41 to 38 billion rupiah in the second quarter on higher non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use the average -83% cost ratio to predict a 49 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
54 25 128 25 32
-32 -36 -150 -279 -151
- Free cashflow went from -254 to -119 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -151 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -102 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -151 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -74 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
631 680 794 711 649
1,185 862 1,001 1,154 1,108
- Cash declined 711 to 649 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,154 to 1,108 billion rupiah so net cash was down -443 to -459 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 296 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -755 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-384 -444 -580 -752 -808
5 166 -150 -172 -56
14 -226 14 0 0
- BMHS cumulative capital worsened -752 to -808 billion rupiah with -56 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,104 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,076 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.50 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our 12m operating cashflow forecast is 307 billion rupiah (vs 209 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 17 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a -34% lower target price 392 rupiah.
