Other shares here
BMHS, expensive
Current 810 Target 787 -3%
January 19 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Costs up, profit down
Cashflow negative but expecting a higher positive
Balance sheet lower leverage with new equity
Valuation, expensive, a -3% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
- Sales declined -7% in the third quarter to 421 billion rupiah which is 21% higher than a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 497 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs up, profit down
- The cash cost ratio went from -74% to -75% profit from 99 to 86 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -86% now.
- We use a higher -82% cost ratio to predict a 69 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow negative but expecting a higher positive
- Free cashflow went from 22 to -12 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -36 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 25 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -36 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 54 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage with new equity
- Cash increased 631 to 680 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,185 to 862 billion rupiah so net cash improved -554 to -182 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -76 billion rupiah equity payout -117 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -65 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, expensive, a -3% lower target price
- BMHS capital raised from the last 15 quarters worsened -384 to -444 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -166 liabilities 226 billion rupiah new equity but will be -251 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,959 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.68 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 193 billion rupiah which means an 36 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a -3% lower target price of 787 rupiah.