BISI 15% yield forecast
BISI Current 1,365 Target 2,590 + 90%
October 22, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 19%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
5% -1% 16% -10% 19%
537 532 619 556 661
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-84% -69% -73% -87% -77%
80 155 154 54 133
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
198 169 213 46 154
-9 -11 -4 -12 -16
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
939 1,095 1,304 1,135 1,273
545 404 428 351 456
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
1,191 1,191 1,191 1,395 1,395
0 0 0 0 0
114 0 0 204 0
October 22, 2022
1 minute read
- BISI last 12 months sales growth + 23%
- BISI last 12 months cash flow + 13% of market cap
- BISI last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- BISI latest net cash + 20% of market cap
Sales jumped 19%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
5% -1% 16% -10% 19%
537 532 619 556 661
- Sales jumped 19% in the second quarter to 661 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% again in this next 12 months to bring sales to 829 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-84% -69% -73% -87% -77%
80 155 154 54 133
- The cash cost ratio went from -87% to -77% profit from 54 to 133 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 177 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
198 169 213 46 154
-9 -11 -4 -12 -16
- Free cashflow went from 35 to 138 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -16 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 135 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -11 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 162 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
939 1,095 1,304 1,135 1,273
545 404 428 351 456
- Cash increased 1,135 to 1,273 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 351 to 456 billion rupiah so net cash was up 784 to 817 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -626 billion rupiah equity payout -21 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 838 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
1,191 1,191 1,191 1,395 1,395
0 0 0 0 0
114 0 0 204 0
- BISI cumulative capital was flat at 1,395 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 2,042 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,095 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.24 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 15% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 647 billion rupiah (vs 539 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 6 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 90% higher target price 2,590 rupiah.
