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BIRD lower sales but still sharp with recovery on track
BIRD Current 1,170 Target 3,107 +166%
Apr 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-3% 18% -29% 91% -13%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-81% -81% -82% -76% -77%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
130, 99, 106, 314, 157
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,021 -833 -805 -504 -389
Capital paid improved, a 166% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,137, 2,328, 2,530, 2,639, 2,674
Apr 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-3% 18% -29% 91% -13%
- Sales declined -13% in the first quarter to 674 billion rupiah -21% below our 848 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 915 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-81% -81% -82% -76% -77%
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -77% profit from 75 to 48 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use the latest -77% cost ratio to predict a 104 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
130, 99, 106, 314, 157
- Free cashflow went from 314 to 157 billion rupiah in the first quarter with lower 21 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 169 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 212 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,021 -833 -805 -504 -389
- Cash increased 946 to 1,068 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,450 to 1,457 billion rupiah so net cash improved -504 to -389 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -138 billion rupiah equity payout -270 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 250 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 166% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,137, 2,328, 2,530, 2,639, 2,674
- BIRD 29 quarter capital paid improved 2,639 to 2,674 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -34 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 3,082 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,928 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.44 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 777 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 166% higher target price of 3,107 rupiah.