BIRD sales full recovery
BIRD Current 1,375 Target 3,457 + 151%
10/28/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-29% 91% -13% 30% 10%
404 771 674 874 961
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-82% -76% -77% -76% -76%
-36 75 48 100 116
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
25 179 134 187 281
81 137 21 -112 -138
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
740 946 1,067 1,042 965
1,545 1,450 1,457 1,570 1,420
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
2,525 2,634 2,668 2,769 2,988
111 110 34 101 69
91 0 0 0 150
10/28/22
1 minute read
- BIRD last 12 months sales growth + 138%
- BIRD last 12 months cash flow + 20% of market cap
- BIRD last 12 months Capital + 13% of market cap
- BIRD latest net cash -13% of market cap
Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-29% 91% -13% 30% 10%
404 771 674 874 961
- Sales grew 10% in the third quarter to 961 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 8% now.
- This brings the average to 29% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,053 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-82% -76% -77% -76% -76%
-36 75 48 100 116
- The cash cost ratio were flat at -76% profit increased from 100 to 116 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use a -76% cost ratio to predict a 138 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
25 179 134 187 281
81 137 21 -112 -138
- Free cashflow went from 76 to 143 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -138 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 172 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -76 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 166 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
740 946 1,067 1,042 965
1,545 1,450 1,457 1,570 1,420
- Cash declined 1,042 to 965 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,570 to 1,420 billion rupiah so net cash was up -528 to -455 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -255 billion rupiah equity payout -263 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -44 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
2,525 2,634 2,668 2,769 2,988
111 110 34 101 69
91 0 0 0 150
- BIRD cumulative capital improved 2,769 to 2,988 billion rupiah with + 69 & + 150 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 3,507 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,440 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.51 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 665 billion rupiah (vs 691 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 151% higher target price 3,457 rupiah.
