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BIRD sales full recovery

BIRD Current 1,375 Target 3,457 + 151%

10/28/22
1 minute read


  • BIRD last 12 months sales growth + 138%
  • BIRD last 12 months cash flow + 20% of market cap
  • BIRD last 12 months Capital + 13% of market cap
  • BIRD latest net cash -13% of market cap

Sales grew 10%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-29% 91% -13% 30% 10%
404 771 674 874 961
  • Sales grew 10% in the third quarter to 961 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 8% now.
  • This brings the average to 29% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,053 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit
billion rupiah
-82% -76% -77% -76% -76%
-36 75 48 100 116
  • The cash cost ratio were flat at -76% profit increased from 100 to 116 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
  • We use a -76% cost ratio to predict a 138 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment
billion rupiah
25 179 134 187 281
81 137 21 -112 -138
  • Free cashflow went from 76 to 143 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -138 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 172 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -76 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 166 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities
billion rupiah
740 946 1,067 1,042 965
1,545 1,450 1,457 1,570 1,420
  • Cash declined 1,042 to 965 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 1,570 to 1,420 billion rupiah so net cash was up -528 to -455 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -255 billion rupiah equity payout -263 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -44 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
billion rupiah
2,525 2,634 2,668 2,769 2,988
111 110 34 101 69
91 0 0 0 150
  • BIRD cumulative capital improved 2,769 to 2,988 billion rupiah with + 69 & + 150 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 3,507 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 3,440 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.51 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 7% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 665 billion rupiah (vs 691 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 151% higher target price 3,457 rupiah.
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