BIRD sales racing back
BIRD Current 1,655 Target 3,179 + 92%
Jul 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 30%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
566, 404, 771, 674, 874
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-81% -82% -76% -77% -76%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
99 106 314 157 77
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-833 -805 -504 -390 -528
Last 12 months capital + 11% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,323 2,525 2,634 2,668 2,769
Jul 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 30%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
566, 404, 771, 674, 874
- Sales grew 30% in the second quarter to 874 billion rupiah 18% above our 741 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,062 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-81% -82% -76% -77% -76%
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -76% profit from 48 to 100 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the latest -76% cost ratio to predict a 145 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
99 106 314 157 77
- Free cashflow went from 157 to 77 billion rupiah in the second quarter with higher -112 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 164 billion rupiah 16% of market cap.
- We assume lower -45 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 199 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-833 -805 -504 -390 -528
- Cash declined 1,067 to 1,042 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,457 to 1,570 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -390 to -528 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -262 billion rupiah equity payout -291 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 5 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Last 12 months capital + 11% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,323 2,525 2,634 2,668 2,769
- BIRD 29 quarter capital improved 2,668 to 2,769 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 101 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity & will be 3,323 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,141 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.62 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 795 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 92% higher target price of 3,179 rupiah.
