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BHIT looking sharp with a forecast 3X cashflow valuation
BHIT Current 68 Target 128 + 88%
Jun 10, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 15% -15% 12% -5%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -74% -71% -76% -75%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
527, -178, 1,094, 829, -705
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-25,584 -23,872 -23,811 -22,930 -22,710
Capital paid improved , a 88% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
669, 443, 139, 631, 803
Jun 10, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 15% -15% 12% -5%
- Sales declined -5% in the first quarter to 4,105 billion rupiah 6% above our 3,885 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,952 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-83% -74% -71% -76% -75%
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -75% profit from 585 to 587 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -74% now.
- We use the average -74% cost ratio to predict a 844 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
527, -178, 1,094, 829, -705
- Free cashflow went from 829 to -705 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -751 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 260 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -751 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a higher 534 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-25,584 -23,872 -23,811 -22,930 -22,710
- Cash declined 3,485 to 2,609 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 26,415 to 25,319 billion rupiah so net cash improved -22,930 to -22,710 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -2,135 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -20,575 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 88% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
669, 443, 139, 631, 803
- BHIT 17 quarter capital paid improved 631 to 803 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -171 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 2,937 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,681 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.09 X assets with a 29 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,135 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 88% higher target price 128 rupiah.