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Picture

BHIT lower sales, cheap

BHIT.jk Current 57 Target 84 + 48%

12/7/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -8%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 35% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 36% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -501% of market cap

Sales declined -15%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-15% 12% -5% 3% -15%
3,885 ; 4,342 ; 4,105 ; 4,216 ; 3,580
  • Sales declined -15% in the third quarter to 3,580 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is -48% now.
  • This brings the average to -2% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,974 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
29% 24% 25% 20% 30%
717 ; 585 ; 587 ; 469 ; 619
  • The cash margin went from 20% to 30% profit from 469 to 619 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 25% now.
  • We use a 25% cash margin to predict a 557 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
2,368 ; 1,485 ; 46 ; 2,048 ; 668
-1,274 ; -657 ; -751 ; -526 ; -644
  • Free cashflow went from 1,522 to 24 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -644 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 417 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -526 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 439 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
3,149 ; 3,485 ; 2,609 ; 3,370 ; 3,093
26,960 ; 26,415 ; 25,319 ; 26,749 ; 26,966
  • Cash declined 3,370 to 3,093 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 26,749 to 26,966 billion rupiah so net cash was down -23,379 to -23,873 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,757 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -22,116 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-305 ; 781 ; 171 ; 764 ; 301
0 ; -288 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0
  • BHIT.jk paid 301 billion rupiah in the third quarter 301 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,757 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 4,762 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.07 X assets with a 37 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,757 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 48% higher target price 84 rupiah.
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