BHIT at 2X cashflow
BHIT Current 70 Target 145 + 107%
Sep 20, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
15% -15% 12% -5% 3%
4,562 3,885 4,342 4,105 4,216
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-74% -71% -76% -75% -80%
793 717 585 587 469
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
519 2,368 1,485 46 2,048
-697 -1,274 -657 -751 -526
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,751 3,149 3,485 2,609 3,370
25,623 26,960 26,415 25,319 26,749
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
443 139 631 803 1,566
-226 -305 781 171 764
0 0 -288 0 0
Sep 20, 2022
1 minute read
- BHIT last 12 months sales growth -8%
- BHIT last 12 months cash flow 12X average + 47% of market cap
- BHIT last 12 months Capital 19X average + 19% of market cap
- BHIT latest net cash -400% of market cap
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
15% -15% 12% -5% 3%
4,562 3,885 4,342 4,105 4,216
- Sales grew 3% in the second quarter to 4,216 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,784 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-74% -71% -76% -75% -80%
793 717 585 587 469
- The cash cost ratio went from -75% to -80% profit from 587 to 469 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use the average -76% cost ratio to predict a 788 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
519 2,368 1,485 46 2,048
-697 -1,274 -657 -751 -526
- Free cashflow went positive again from -705 to 1,522 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -526 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 685 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -526 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 606 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,751 3,149 3,485 2,609 3,370
25,623 26,960 26,415 25,319 26,749
- Cash increased 2,609 to 3,370 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 25,319 to 26,749 billion rupiah so net cash was down -22,710 to -23,379 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -2,424 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -20,955 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
443 139 631 803 1,566
-226 -305 781 171 764
0 0 -288 0 0
- BHIT cumulative capital improved 803 to 1,566 billion rupiah with + 764 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 3,990 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,848 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.09 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,424 billion rupiah (vs 2,739 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 107% higher target price 145 rupiah.
