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BFIN, looking less sharp as cashflow negative
BFIN Current 1,285 Target 1,749 + 36%
May 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
-7% -2% 4% 14% 2%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-57% -60% -59% -57% -55%
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
606, 91, 152, -414, -733
Balance sheet leverage increased
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,700 -6,721 -6,630 -7,237 -7,902
Capital paid worsened , a 36% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,468 5,555 5,497 4,939 4,047
May 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters
-7% -2% 4% 14% 2%
- Sales grew 2% in the first quarter to 1,173 billion rupiah 3% above our 1,142 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,318 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-57% -60% -59% -57% -55%
- The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -55% profit from 335 to 396 billion rupiah on lower provisions in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -58% now.
- We use the latest -55% cost ratio to predict a 655 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
606, 91, 152, -414, -733
- Free cashflow went more negative from -414 to -733 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -29 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -226 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -29 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 564 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet leverage increased
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,700 -6,721 -6,630 -7,237 -7,902
- Cash declined 969 to 628 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 8,206 to 8,530 billion rupiah so leverage increased -7,237 to -7,902 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -763 billion rupiah equity payout -1,417 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -6,485 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 36% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
5,468 5,555 5,497 4,939 4,047
- BFIN 17 quarter capital paid worsened 4,939 to 4,047 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 892 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 6,228 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 19,229 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.2 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,181 billion rupiah which means an 9 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 36% higher target price 1,749 rupiah.