BFIN cashflow still negative
BFIN Current 1,110 Target 1,169 + 5%
11/12/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
4% 14% 2% 9% 9%
1,009 1,154 1,173 1,282 1,393
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-59% -57% -55% -58% -56%
74 130 97 75 95
309 335 396 433 481
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
191 -374 -704 -695 -883
-39 -40 -29 -62 -47
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, assets, liabilities & liabilities billion rupiah
825 969 628 1,114 1,321
14,645 15,636 16,355 18,141 20,001
7,455 8,206 8,530 10,029 11,404
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
5,497 4,939 4,547 3,305 2,669
-58 -663 -392 -1,242 -786
0 105 0 0 150
11/12/22
1 minute read
- BFIN last 12 months sales growth + 38%
- BFIN last 12 months cash flow -17% of market cap
- BFIN last 12 months Capital -17% of market cap
- BFIN latest net cash -61% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
4% 14% 2% 9% 9%
1,009 1,154 1,173 1,282 1,393
- Sales grew 9% in the third quarter to 1,393 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -7% now.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,464 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-59% -57% -55% -58% -56%
74 130 97 75 95
309 335 396 433 481
- The cash cost ratio went from -58% to -56% profit from 433 to 481 billion rupiah in the third quarter on higher provisions .
- The average cost ratio is at -56% now.
- We use a -56% cost ratio to predict a 512 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
191 -374 -704 -695 -883
-39 -40 -29 -62 -47
- Free cashflow went more negative from -756 to -929 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -47 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -708 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -46 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 583 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, assets, liabilities & liabilities billion rupiah
825 969 628 1,114 1,321
14,645 15,636 16,355 18,141 20,001
7,455 8,206 8,530 10,029 11,404
- Cash increased 1,114 to 1,321 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 10,029 to 11,404 billion rupiah so net cash was down -8,915 to -10,083 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -199 billion rupiah equity payout -2,115 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -7,949 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
5,497 4,939 4,547 3,305 2,669
-58 -663 -392 -1,242 -786
0 105 0 0 150
- BFIN cumulative capital worsened 3,305 to 2,669 billion rupiah with -786 & + 150 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 4,984 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 16,610 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,333 billion rupiah (vs -2,832 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 7 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 5% higher target price 1,169 rupiah.
