BFIN cashflow more negative
BFIN Current 1,125 Target 1,058 -6%
Sep 16, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-2% 4% 14% 2% 9%
969 1,009 1,154 1,173 1,282
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-60% -59% -57% -55% -58%
257 309 335 396 433
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
107 191 -374 -704 -695
-16 -39 -40 -29 -62
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
616 825 969 628 1,114
7,337 7,455 8,206 8,530 10,029
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
5,555 5,497 4,939 4,047 2,805
-182 -58 -663 -892 -1,942
269 0 105 0 700
Sep 16, 2022
1 minute read
- BFIN last 12 months sales growth 1.5X average + 32%
- BFIN last 12 months cash flow -10% of market cap
- BFIN last 12 months Capital -16% of market cap
- BFIN latest net cash -53% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-2% 4% 14% 2% 9%
969 1,009 1,154 1,173 1,282
- Sales grew 9% in the second quarter to 1,282 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -7% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,334 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-60% -59% -57% -55% -58%
257 309 335 396 433
- The cash cost ratio went from -55% to -58% profit from 396 to 433 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -57% now.
- We use a -59% cost ratio to predict a 599 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
107 191 -374 -704 -695
-16 -39 -40 -29 -62
- Free cashflow went from -733 to -756 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -62 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -438 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -45 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 495 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
616 825 969 628 1,114
7,337 7,455 8,206 8,530 10,029
- Cash increased 628 to 1,114 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 8,530 to 10,029 billion rupiah so net cash was down -7,902 to -8,915 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -237 billion rupiah equity payout -1,743 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -7,172 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
5,555 5,497 4,939 4,047 2,805
-182 -58 -663 -892 -1,942
269 0 105 0 700
- BFIN cumulative capital worsened 4,047 to 2,805 billion rupiah with -1,942 & + 700 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 4,785 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 16,835 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,980 billion rupiah (vs -1,751 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means an 9 X valuation. An 8 X valuation gives a -6% lower target price 1,058 rupiah.
