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BEBS, Cashflow jumps, but expensive
Current 6,475 Target 3,029 -53%
January 31 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -18%
Costs down profit flat
Cashflow jumps up with investment gains
Balance sheet lower leverage
Valuation, expensive, a -53% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales declined -18%
- Sales declined -18% in the fourth quarter to 125 billion rupiah vs our 190 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 16% growth.
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,969 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Costs down profit flat
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -71% profit was flat at 35 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use a -74% cost ratio to predict a 46 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Cashflow jumps up with investment gains
- Free cashflow jumped up from 0 to 26 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a positive 125 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -18 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -2 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 43 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
- Cash increased 1 to 26 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 168 to 46 billion rupiah so net cash improved -167 to -20 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -77 billion rupiah equity payout -9 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will turn positive 53 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, expensive, a -53% lower target price
- BEBS capital raised from the last 12 quarters was flat at -208 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter but will be -123 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 58,270 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s expensive at 66.75 X assets with a 3.9 years payback & a 0.1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 182 billion rupiah which means an 321 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -53% lower target price of 3,029 rupiah.