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BEBS sharper with positive cashflow, but very expensive
BEBS Current 4,300 Target 552 -87%
Jul 11, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-12% 78% -18% 48% -13%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-77% -76% -71% -76% -75%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3, 2, 29, 16, 25
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-35 -167 -20 -34 -52
Capital raised improved , a -87% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-194 -192 -188 -187 -152
Jul 11, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-12% 78% -18% 48% -13%
- Sales declined -13% in the second quarter to 161 billion rupiah 3% above our 157 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 24% growth.
- We predict average growth of 10% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 206 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-77% -76% -71% -76% -75%
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -75% profit from 43 to 40 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use a -76% cost ratio to predict a 48 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3, 2, 29, 16, 25
- Free cashflow went from 16 to 25 billion rupiah in the second quarter with positive 2 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 18 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -9 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 39 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-35 -167 -20 -34 -52
- Cash declined 41 to 30 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 75 to 82 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -34 to -52 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -111 billion rupiah equity payout -130 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -14 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a -87% lower target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-194 -192 -188 -187 -152
- BEBS 14 quarter capital raised improved -187 to -152 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 1 billion rupiah from liabilities + 33 billion rupiah from equity & will be -62 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 38,700 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a high 44.6 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 155 billion rupiah which means a 249 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a -87% lower target price 552 rupiah.
