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BDMN, looking sharp with a 3X cashflow valuation
BDMN Current 2,470 Target 4,240 + 72%
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
5% 0% -4% -0% -2%
Costs up profit up on lower provisions
Last 5 quarters
-58% -55% -60% -46% -57%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
-3,232, 2,654, 3,588, 5,618, -5,089
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters
139,962, 137,786, 129,985, 128,895, 136,747
Capital paid worsened , a 72% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
23,998 24,997 26,755 27,646 26,720
Apr 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -2%
Last 5 quarters
5% 0% -4% -0% -2%
- Sales declined -2% in the first quarter to 4,259 billion rupiah -5% below our 4,500 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring receipts to 4,742 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit up on lower provisions
Last 5 quarters
-58% -55% -60% -46% -57%
- The Cashflow cost ratio went from -46% to -57% Profit 200 to 884 billion rupiah in the first quarter on lower provisions.
- The average cost ratio is at -55% now.
- We use -54% cost ratio to predict a 2,160 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
-3,232, 2,654, 3,588, 5,618, -5,089
- Free cashflow went negative from 5,618 to -5,089 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 7,559 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,693 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -32 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 2,128 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters
139,962, 137,786, 129,985, 128,895, 136,747
- Non cash assets growth improved -0.4% to 4.5% in the first quarter. Average growth is -0.2% now.
- Liabilities growth declined 2.5% to 2.5% in the first quarter. Average growth is 0.2% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.5% to 2.3% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 2.5% now.
Capital paid worsened , a 72% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
23,998 24,997 26,755 27,646 26,720
- BDMN capital from the last 29 quarters worsened 27,646 to 26,720 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with 854 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 28,130 in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 24,141 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.12 X assets with a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 8,288 billion rupiah which means an 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 72% higher target price of 4,240 rupiah.