BDMN huge mystery cashflow
BDMN Current 2,510 Target 5,672 + 126%
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Non cash asset growth dropped from 5% to -6.1%
Last 5 quarters
-1.0% -4.0% -0.4% 4.5% -6.1%
Last 5 quarters
2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5%
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
4,539 4,347 4,339 4,259 4,293
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-55% -60% -46% -57% -60%
Cashflow last 12 months 61% of market cap!
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,637 3,550 5,571 -5,106 10,933
Capital last 12 months + 16% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
24,997 26,755 27,646 26,720 28,970
Jul 30, 2022
1 minute read
Non cash asset growth dropped from 5% to -6.1%
Last 5 quarters
-1.0% -4.0% -0.4% 4.5% -6.1%
- Non cash asset growth went from 5% to -6.1% in the second quarter.
- Average quarter growth is at -1.5% now.
- We predict average growth of 3% in the next 12 months.
Last 5 quarters
2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5%
- Sales to assets went from 2.3% to 2.5% in the second quarter.
- The average quarter ratio is 2.5% now.
- We use a 3.4% ratio for our forecasts.
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
4,539 4,347 4,339 4,259 4,293
- Sales grew 1% in the second quarter to 4,293 billion rupiah -2% below our 4,387 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -1% growth.
- With our asset growth & sales to assets forecasts, sales will be 5,043 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-55% -60% -46% -57% -60%
- The cash cost ratio went from -57% to -60%, provisions went from 781 to 701 billion rupiah so profit went from 884 to 863 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -56% now.
- We use a lower -51% cost ratio, -741 billion rupiah provisions to predict a 1,570 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2023.
Cashflow last 12 months 61% of market cap!
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,637 3,550 5,571 -5,106 10,933
- Free cashflow went from -5,106 to 10,933 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 2,187 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 3,737 billion rupiah, 61% of market cap!
- We assume -48 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 2,310 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Capital last 12 months + 16% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
24,997 26,755 27,646 26,720 28,970
- BDMN cumulative capital from the last 30 quarters improved 26,720 to 28,970 billion rupiah in the quarter with + 1,627 billion rupiah from liabilities + 599 billion rupiah from equity & will be 30,657 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- The current market value of 24,532 billion rupiah gives a 7% forecast yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 9,238 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 126% higher target price of 5,672 rupiah.
