BDMN sales up slightly
BDMN Current 3,400 Target 5,000 + 47%
11/1/22
1 minute read
Sales grew slightly
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-4% -0% -2% 1% 0%
4,347 4,339 4,259 4,293 4,314
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-60% -46% -57% -60% -58%
1,138 2,011 781 701 788
433 200 884 863 869
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
4,686 5,409 -12,665 8,746 -6,528
-1,136 162 7,559 2,187 720
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, assets, liabilities billion rupiah
13,539 18,262 14,100 22,785 16,419
188,280 192,240 195,992 193,575 189,213
143,524 147,157 150,847 147,775 142,753
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
26,755 27,646 26,720 28,970 29,561
1,683 844 -854 1,627 568
75 0 0 599 0
11/1/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months Sales growth -1%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 17% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 8% of market cap
- Latest net cash -380% of market cap
Sales grew slightly
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-4% -0% -2% 1% 0%
4,347 4,339 4,259 4,293 4,314
- Sales grew slightly in the third quarter to 4,314 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 5% now.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 4,665 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-60% -46% -57% -60% -58%
1,138 2,011 781 701 788
433 200 884 863 869
- The cash cost ratio went from -60% to -58% profit from 863 to 869 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -56% now.
- We use a -55% cost ratio to predict a 1,211 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
4,686 5,409 -12,665 8,746 -6,528
-1,136 162 7,559 2,187 720
- Free cashflow went from 10,933 to -5,808 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 720 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,397 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -40 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 2,036 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, assets, liabilities billion rupiah
13,539 18,262 14,100 22,785 16,419
188,280 192,240 195,992 193,575 189,213
143,524 147,157 150,847 147,775 142,753
- Cash declined 22,785 to 16,419 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 147,775 to 142,753 billion rupiah so net cash was down -124,990 to -126,334 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,325 billion rupiah equity payout -57 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -119,514 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
26,755 27,646 26,720 28,970 29,561
1,683 844 -854 1,627 568
75 0 0 599 0
- BDMN cumulative capital improved 28,970 to 29,561 billion rupiah with + 568 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 30,886 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 33,230 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 8,145 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 47% higher target price 5,000 rupiah.
