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BBTN looking sharp as cashflow jumps
BBTN Current 1,775 Target 3,139 + 77%
23 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -19%
Last 5 quarters
-10% 0% -5% 34% -19%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-84% -78% -77% -66% -73%
Cashflow jumped
Last 5 quarters
232, 504, 1,114, 720, 2,118
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters
-305,391 -288,967 -290,890 -286,463 -298,175
Capital raised improved , a 77% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
-8,457, -7,654, -1,760, -3,262, -1,477
23 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -19%
Last 5 quarters
-10% 0% -5% 34% -19%
- Sales declined -19% in the first quarter to 6,285 billion rupiah -4% below our 6,535 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 6,664 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-84% -78% -77% -66% -73%
- The cash cost ratio went from -66% to -73% profit from 861 to 774 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
- The average cost ratio is at -73% now.
- We use -73% cost ratio to predict a 876 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow jumped
Last 5 quarters
232, 504, 1,114, 720, 2,118
- Free cashflow jumped from 720 to 2,118 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -91 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,114 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -91 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 1,700 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters
-305,391 -288,967 -290,890 -286,463 -298,175
- Non cash assets growth increased -0.8% to 3.0% in the first quarter. Average growth is -0.4% now.
- Liabilities growth declined 0.7% to -0.7% in the first quarter. Average growth is -0.7% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.3% to 2% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 2.0% now.
Capital raised improved , a 77% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
-8,457, -7,654, -1,760, -3,262, -1,477
- BBTN capital from the last 13 quarters improved -3,262 to -1,477 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with -1,547 billion rupiah liabilities -238 billion rupiah equity payouts & will be -472 in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 18,797 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.05 X assets with a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 6,648 billion rupiah which means an 3 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 77% higher target price of 3,139 rupiah.