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BBNI less dull as cashflow rises
BBNI Current 9,600 Target 12,417 + 29%
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-12% 7% -4% 7% 1%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-55% -47% -65% -59% -57%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters
8,247, 5,942, -1,525, 944, 1,908
Balance sheet Non cash assets growth increased
Last 5 quarters
-2.2% -4.9% 4.5% 1.5% 4.6%
Capital raised improved , a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
-11,440, -8,369, -16,406, -7,202, -6,645
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters
-12% 7% -4% 7% 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the first quarter to 18,962 billion rupiah 2% above our 18,647 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 20,912 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-55% -47% -65% -59% -57%
- The cash cost ratio went from -59% to -57% profit from 3,205 to 3,975 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -57% now.
- We use the average -57% cost ratio to predict a 4,826 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters
8,247, 5,942, -1,525, 944, 1,908
- Free cashflow went from 944 to 1,908 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -6,583 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,817 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -1,545 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a 7,405 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet Non cash assets growth increased
Last 5 quarters
-2.2% -4.9% 4.5% 1.5% 4.6%
- Non cash assets growth increased 1.5% to 4.6% in the first quarter. Average growth is 1.4% now.
- Liabilities growth declined 4.5% to -4.2% in the first quarter. Average growth is 2.0% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.4% to 2.3% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 2.3% now.
Capital raised improved , a 29% higher target price
Last 5 quarters
-11,440, -8,369, -16,406, -7,202, -6,645
- BBNI capital from the last 29 quarters improved -7,202 to -6,645 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with a -508 liabilities payment & will be -1,106 in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 133,500 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.14 X assets with a 4% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 28,778 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price of 12,417 dollars.