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BBHI, dull & expensive, at over 200X cashflow

BBHI Current 6,500 Target 4,231 -35%

4 May 2022
1 minute read

Sales jumped 34%
Last 5 quarters
43% 31% 79% -10% 34%
  • Sales jumped 34% in the first quarter to 158 billion rupiah -3% below our 163 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 33% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 20% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 272 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
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Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -83% -44% -66% -58%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -66% to -58% profit from 107 to 75 billion rupiah with higher provisions in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -63% now.
  • We use a lower -44% cost ratio to predict a 161 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
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Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
-22 159 -793 46 -3,763
  • Free cashflow went negative from 46 to -3,763 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,088 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 153 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
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Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters

-3,575, -3,624, -5,412, -3,100, -1,980
  • Non cash assets growth increased -34% to 85% in the first quarter. Average growth is 30% now.
  • Liabilities growth increased -40% to -2% in the first quarter. Average growth is 2% now.
  • The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.7% to 1.9% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 2.1% now.

Capital raised worsened , a -35% lower target price
Last 5 quarters
-194 -194 -942 -942 -5,743
  • BBHI 29 quarters capital raised worsened -942 to -5,743 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with 4,801 billion rupiah new equity & will be -5,591 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 141,247 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 14.45 X assets with a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 613 billion rupiah which means an 230 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -35% lower target price 4,231 rupiah.
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