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BBHI, dull & expensive, at over 200X cashflow
BBHI Current 6,500 Target 4,231 -35%
4 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 34%
Last 5 quarters
43% 31% 79% -10% 34%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -83% -44% -66% -58%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
-22 159 -793 46 -3,763
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters
-3,575, -3,624, -5,412, -3,100, -1,980
Capital raised worsened , a -35% lower target price
Last 5 quarters
-194 -194 -942 -942 -5,743
4 May 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 34%
Last 5 quarters
43% 31% 79% -10% 34%
- Sales jumped 34% in the first quarter to 158 billion rupiah -3% below our 163 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 33% growth.
- We predict average growth of 20% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 272 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-91% -83% -44% -66% -58%
- The cash cost ratio went from -66% to -58% profit from 107 to 75 billion rupiah with higher provisions in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -63% now.
- We use a lower -44% cost ratio to predict a 161 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters
-22 159 -793 46 -3,763
- Free cashflow went negative from 46 to -3,763 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -1,088 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 153 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters
-3,575, -3,624, -5,412, -3,100, -1,980
- Non cash assets growth increased -34% to 85% in the first quarter. Average growth is 30% now.
- Liabilities growth increased -40% to -2% in the first quarter. Average growth is 2% now.
- The sales to asset ratio worsened 2.7% to 1.9% in the first quarter. Average sales to assets is 2.1% now.
Capital raised worsened , a -35% lower target price
Last 5 quarters
-194 -194 -942 -942 -5,743
- BBHI 29 quarters capital raised worsened -942 to -5,743 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with 4,801 billion rupiah new equity & will be -5,591 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 141,247 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 14.45 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 613 billion rupiah which means an 230 X valuation. A 150 X valuation gives a -35% lower target price 4,231 rupiah.