BBCA.jk Sales grew 9%
Current 8,200 Target 9,145 + 12%
1/26/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
4% -1% 5% 5% 9%
20,480 ; 20,374 ; 21,429 ; 22,552 ; 24,470 billion rupiah
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
51% 56% 54% 52% 52%
8,229 ; 8,068 ; 9,989 ; 10,914 ; 11,786 billion rupiah
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
18,965 ; -19,257 ; 93,352 ; -56,152 ; 15,837 billion rupiah
-8,560 ; -662 ; -9,001 ; -17,425 ; -5,295 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
177,268 ; 157,291 ; 226,617 ; 153,874 ; 160,422 billion rupiah
1,025,496 ; 1,064,607 ; 1,061,339 ; 1,071,270 ; 1,087,110 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-236 ; 58 ; 232 ; -389 ; 107 billion rupiah
3,082 ; 0 ; 14,793 ; 0 ; 4,315 billion rupiah
Current 8,200 Target 9,145 + 12%
1/26/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 19%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 2% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -92% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
4% -1% 5% 5% 9%
20,480 ; 20,374 ; 21,429 ; 22,552 ; 24,470 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 9% in the fourth quarter to 24,470 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are + 13% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 25,960 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
51% 56% 54% 52% 52%
8,229 ; 8,068 ; 9,989 ; 10,914 ; 11,786 billion rupiah
- The cash margin was flat at 52% profit increased from 10,914 to 11,786 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 54% now.
- We use a 53% cash margin to predict a 12,152 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
18,965 ; -19,257 ; 93,352 ; -56,152 ; 15,837 billion rupiah
-8,560 ; -662 ; -9,001 ; -17,425 ; -5,295 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from -73,577 to 10,542 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -5,295 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 349 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -5,295 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 8,053 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
177,268 ; 157,291 ; 226,617 ; 153,874 ; 160,422 billion rupiah
1,025,496 ; 1,064,607 ; 1,061,339 ; 1,071,270 ; 1,087,110 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 153,874 to 160,422 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,071,270 to 1,087,110 billion rupiah so net cash was down -917,396 to -926,688 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -20,976 billion rupiah equity payout -11,235 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -915,453 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-236 ; 58 ; 232 ; -389 ; 107 billion rupiah
3,082 ; 0 ; 14,793 ; 0 ; 4,315 billion rupiah
- BBCA.jk paid 4,422 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 107 billion rupiah liabilities 4,315 billion rupiah equity, will pay 32,211 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 1,010,855 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.76 X assets with a 36 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 32,211 billion rupiah which means a 31 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a 12% higher target price 9,145 rupiah.