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BANK, extremely expensive
Current 2,250 Target 1,103 -51%
January 24, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Costs up, profit down
Cashflow lower
Balance sheet faster liabilities growth
Valuation, a -51% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
- Sales declined -7% in the third quarter to 9 billion rupiah & are up 18% from a year ago.
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict faster average growth of 13% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 14 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs up, profit down
- The cash cost ratio went from -236% to -530% profit from -5 to -58 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a large non operating loss.
- The average cost ratio is at -222% now.
- We use an average -177% cost ratio to predict a -8 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow lower
- Free cashflow went from -13 to -48 billion rupiah in the third quarter with higher -19 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is down to -22 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a better -7 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet faster liabilities growth
- Non cash asset growth improved -5% to 2% in the third quarter. Average growth is 25% now.
- Liabilities growth improved -14% to 46% in the third quarter. Average growth is 4% now.
- The sales to assets ratio worsened 0.9% to 0.8% in the third quarter. The average ratio is 0.8% now.
Valuation, a -51% lower target price
- BANK capital from the last 3 quarters worsened -510 to -516 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 5 billion rupiah of new equity & will be -553 in the in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 29,550 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at extremely expensive 25.05 X assets with a 0% yield.
- Our sales forecast is 58 billion rupiah which means an 510 X valuation. A 250 X valuation gives a -51% lower target price of 1,103 rupiah.