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Picture
BANK.jk Cashflow less negative

Current 1,340 Target 734 -45%

1/11/2023
1 minute read​

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 199%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -3% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) -6% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -11% of market cap

Sales grew 61%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
-7% -7% 114% -7% 61%
9 ; 8 ; 18 ; 17 ; 27 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 61% in the third quarter to 27 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -68% now.
  • This brings the average to 40% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 37 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 87% 23% 13% 28%
-0 ; 0 ; -0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 13% to 28% profit from 0 to 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 38% now.
  • We use a 28% cash margin to predict a 6 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
-30 ; 958 ; -871 ; 193 ; -381 billion rupiah
-19 ; 161 ; 68 ; -695 ; -43 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from -501 to -423 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -43 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -152 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 9 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
37 ; 1,158 ; 366 ; 908 ; 555 billion rupiah
1,182 ; 2,173 ; 1,303 ; 2,798 ; 2,598 billion rupiah
  • Cash declined 908 to 555 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 2,798 to 2,598 billion rupiah so net cash was down -1,889 to -2,043 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,008 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 ; 0 billion rupiah
-5 ; -3 ; -10 ; -1,044 ; -70 billion rupiah
  • BANK.jk (raised) -70 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities -70 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 19,454 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 210.70 X assets with a -14 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 36 billion rupiah which means a 547 X valuation. A 300 X valuation gives a -45% lower target price 734 rupiah.
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