BANK at 200X sales
BANK Current 1,625 Target 757 -53%
September 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
2% -7% -7% 114% -7%
10 9 8 18 17
Costs down profit less negative
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-236% -532% -725% -318% -304%
-5 -58 -61 -44 -37
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-20 -30 967 -869 199
59 -19 161 68 -695
Net cash up from new equity
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
81 37 1,158 366 908
56 81 1,127 296 785
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-510 -516 -510 -518 -1,556
0 0 0 0 0
0 -5 -3 -10 -1,044
September 23, 2022
1 minute read
- BANK last 12 months sales growth 4X average + 74%
- BANK last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- BANK last 12 months Capital -5% of market cap
- BANK latest net cash + 1% of market cap
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
2% -7% -7% 114% -7%
10 9 8 18 17
- Sales declined -7% in the second quarter to 17 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -2% now.
- This brings the average to 23% growth.
- We predict average growth of 13% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 26 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit less negative
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-236% -532% -725% -318% -304%
-5 -58 -61 -44 -37
- The cash cost ratio went from -318% to -304% profit from -44 to -37 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -470% now.
- We use a -199% cost ratio to predict a -28 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-20 -30 967 -869 199
59 -19 161 68 -695
- Free cashflow went from -801 to -496 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -695 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -54 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives -30 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up from new equity
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
81 37 1,158 366 908
56 81 1,127 296 785
- Cash increased 366 to 908 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 296 to 785 billion rupiah so net cash was up 70 to 123 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout + 122 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 1 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-510 -516 -510 -518 -1,556
0 0 0 0 0
0 -5 -3 -10 -1,044
- BANK cumulative capital worsened -518 to -1,556 billion rupiah with 0 & -1,044 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,677 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 22,210 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at X assets with a years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m sales forecast is 104 billion rupiah (vs 45 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 215 X valuation. A 100 X valuation gives a -53% lower target price 757 rupiah.
