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BALI looking sharper as average Cashflow turns positive
BALI Current 785 Target 819 + 4%
Apr 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
3% 1% 13% 0% -3%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-60% -56% -60% -58% -59%
Cashflow average turns positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-62, -57, -57, 71, 64
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,415 -2,446 -2,560 -2,513 -2,500
Capital raised worsened, a 4% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,578 -1,558 -1,579 -1,604 -1,714
Apr 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters
3% 1% 13% 0% -3%
- Sales declined -3% in the first quarter to 245 billion rupiah -2% below our 250 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average growth to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 280 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-60% -56% -60% -58% -59%
- The cash cost ratio went from -58% to -59% profit from 55 to 54 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -58% now.
- We use the average -58% cost ratio to predict a 70 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow average turns positive
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-62, -57, -57, 71, 64
- Free cashflow went from 71 to 64 billion rupiah in the first quarter with lower -94 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now positive at 5 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the latest -94 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 22 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,415 -2,446 -2,560 -2,513 -2,500
- Cash increased 137 to 203 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,650 to 2,703 billion rupiah so net cash improved -2,513 to -2,500 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -76 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,425 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened, a 4% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,578 -1,558 -1,579 -1,604 -1,714
- BALI 21 quarter capital raised worsened -1,604 to -1,714 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 110 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be -1,639 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,089 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.58 X assets with a 55 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 90 billion rupiah which means an 34 X valuation. A 36 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price of 819 rupiah.