BALI sales growth stops
BALI Current 800 Target 773 -3%
11/4/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
13% 0% -3% 0% 0%
251 252 245 245 246
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-60% -58% -59% -61% -60%
49 55 54 49 50
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
71 180 92 69 112
-128 -108 -94 -101 -39
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
41 137 203 127 49
2,601 2,650 2,703 2,596 2,569
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,579 -1,604 -1,672 -1,628 -1,478
-139 -26 -68 44 28
118 0 0 0 123
11/4/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -2%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 3% of market cap
- Latest net cash -80% of market cap
Sales grew 0%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
13% 0% -3% 0% 0%
251 252 245 245 246
- Sales grew 0% in the second quarter to 246 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 5% now.
- This brings the average to -1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 258 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-60% -58% -59% -61% -60%
49 55 54 49 50
- The cash cost ratio went from -61% to -60% profit from 49 to 50 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
- We use a -60% cost ratio to predict a 55 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
71 180 92 69 112
-128 -108 -94 -101 -39
- Free cashflow went from -32 to 73 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -39 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 27 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -70 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 30 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
41 137 203 127 49
2,601 2,650 2,703 2,596 2,569
- Cash declined 127 to 49 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,596 to 2,569 billion rupiah so net cash was down -2,469 to -2,520 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -122 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,398 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-1,579 -1,604 -1,672 -1,628 -1,478
-139 -26 -68 44 28
118 0 0 0 123
- BALI cumulative capital improved -1,628 to -1,478 billion rupiah with + 28 & + 123 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,357 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,148 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.62 X assets with a 40 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 122 billion rupiah which means a 26 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -3% lower target price 773 rupiah.
