BALI cashflow negative again
BALI Current 1,000 Target 599 -40%
Aug 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales flat
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 13% 0% -3% 0%
223 251 252 245 245
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-56% -60% -58% -59% -61%
48 49 55 54 49
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
83 71 180 158 3
-140 -128 -108 -94 -101
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
76 41 137 203 127
2,522 2,601 2,650 2,703 2,596
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,558 -1,579 -1,604 -1,714 -1,737
20 -139 -26 -110 -22
0 118 0 0 0
Aug 25, 2022
1 minute read
- BALI sales are growing but slower than the market average
- BALI is not making money, but not losing as much as before with 12 months cashflow -0.5% of market cap
- BALI is raising capital with 12 months Capital paid (raised) -5% of market cap
- BALI has a quite large negative net cash -63% of market cap
Sales flat
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
1% 13% 0% -3% 0%
223 251 252 245 245
- Sales grew 0% in the second quarter to 245 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 5% now.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 260 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-56% -60% -58% -59% -61%
48 49 55 54 49
- The cash cost ratio went from -59% to -61% profit from 54 to 49 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -60% now.
- We use the average -60% cost ratio to predict a 57 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
83 71 180 158 3
-140 -128 -108 -94 -101
- Free cashflow went from 64 to -98 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -101 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -5 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -97 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 6 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
76 41 137 203 127
2,522 2,601 2,650 2,703 2,596
- Cash declined 203 to 127 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 2,703 to 2,596 billion rupiah so net cash was up -2,500 to -2,469 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -24 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,445 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,558 -1,579 -1,604 -1,714 -1,737
20 -139 -26 -110 -22
0 118 0 0 0
- BALI cumulative capital worsened -1,714 to -1,737 billion rupiah with -22 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -1,713 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,935 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.75 X assets with a 209 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 24 billion rupiah which means a 167 X valuation. A 100 X valuation gives a -40% lower target price 599 rupiah.
