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BAL looking super sharp as cashflow more than tripled
BAL Current 0.77 Target 1.86 +142%
March 3 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 25%
Last 3 semesters
27% 7% 25%
Costs down profit tripled
Last 3 semesters
-77% -83% -73%
Cashflow more than tripled
Last 3 semesters billion rupiah
1,026, 405, 1,517
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 3 semesters billion rupiah
-6,907, -6,771, -5,511
Capital paid jumped, a 7% yield, 142% higher target price
Last 3 semesters billion rupiah
1,596, 2,592, 4,137
March 3 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 25%
Last 3 semesters
27% 7% 25%
- Sales grew 25% in the second semester to 6,810 billion rupiah far above our 5,982 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average growth to 16% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,651 billion rupiah in the second semester 2022.
Costs down profit tripled
Last 3 semesters
-77% -83% -73%
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -73% profit tripled from 579 to 1,510 billion rupiah in the second semester
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use the latest -73% cost ratio to predict a 1,738 billion rupiah profit in the second semester 2022.
Cashflow more than tripled
Last 3 semesters billion rupiah
1,026, 405, 1,517
- Free cashflow more than tripled from 405 to 1,517 billion rupiah in the second semester with -289 billion rupiah investment spending .
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 961 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -289 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 1,783 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second semester 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 3 semesters billion rupiah
-6,907, -6,771, -5,511
- Cash declined 202 to 176 billion rupiah in the second semester.
- Liabilities declined 6,973 to 5,687 billion rupiah so net cash improved -6,771 to -5,511 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,002 billion rupiah equity payout -1,081 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,082 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid jumped, a 7% yield, 142% higher target price
Last 3 semesters billion rupiah
1,596, 2,592, 4,137
- BAL 16 semester capital paid jumped 2,592 to 4,137 billion rupiah in the second semester with -1,291 billion rupiah liabilities -254 billion rupiah equity payments & will be 6,219 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 14,175 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.75 X assets with a 5 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,431 billion rupiah which means an 4 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 142% higher target price of 1.86 Singapore dollars.