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Boeing dull with negative cashflow but cheap
BA Current 119 Target 155 + 30%
May 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 12% -10% -3% -5%
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-96% -91% -96% -95% -99%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-623, 1,176, 2,704, 2,651, -251
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-160,817 -157,149 -151,348 -145,346 -143,660
Capital paid improved , a 30% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-67 -48 1,123 5,485 5,881
May 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -5%
Last 5 quarters
-1% 12% -10% -3% -5%
- Sales declined -5% in the first quarter to 13,991 million dollars -6% below our 14,941 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -2% growth.
- We predict positive average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 18,919 million dollars in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters
-96% -91% -96% -95% -99%
- The cash cost ratio went from -95% to -99% profit from -4,164 to -1,242 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use a lower -94% cost ratio to predict a 252 million dollars profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-623, 1,176, 2,704, 2,651, -251
- Free cashflow went from 2,651 to -251 million dollars in the first quarter with 2,965 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is still positive at 1,570 million dollars now.
- We assume -86 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 978 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-160,817 -157,149 -151,348 -145,346 -143,660
- Cash declined 8,052 to 7,409 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 153,398 to 151,069 million dollars so net cash improved -145,346 to -143,660 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -231 million dollars equity payout -3,443 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -140,217 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 30% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-67 -48 1,123 5,485 5,881
- BA 29 quarters capital paid improved 5,485 to 5,881 million dollars in the first quarter with a -394 liabilities payment, 30 million dollars new equity & will be 9,555 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 70,641 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.53 X assets with a 35 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,674 million dollars which means a 19 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price of 155 dollars.