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Picture
BA Sales grew 50%

Current 213 Target 221 + 4%

1/26/2023
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 35%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 1% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -109% of market cap

Sales grew 50%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
-3% -5% 19% -20% 50%
14,793 ; 13,991 ; 16,681 ; 13,331 ; 19,980 million dollars​
  • Sales grew 50% in the fourth quarter to 19,980 million dollars ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -5% now.
  • This brings the average to 11% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 22,462 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2023.

Margin up loss improves
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 1% 7% -16% 2%
-4,164 ; -1,242 ; 160 ; -3,308 ; -663 million dollars
  • The cash margin went from -16% to 2% profit from -3,308 to -663 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at -2% now.
  • We use a 5% cash margin to predict a -53 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2023.

Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
716 ; -3,216 ; 81 ; 3,190 ; 3,457 million dollars
1,935 ; 2,965 ; 3,266 ; 290 ; -2,151 million dollars
  • Free cashflow went from 3,480 to 1,306 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -2,151 million dollars investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,971 million dollars now.
  • We assume -86 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 918 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
8,052 ; 7,409 ; 10,090 ; 13,494 ; 14,614 million dollars
153,398 ; 151,069 ; 150,270 ; 155,193 ; 152,948 million dollars
  • Cash increased 13,494 to 14,614 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 155,193 to 152,948 million dollars so net cash was up -141,699 to -138,334 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -3,671 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -134,663 million dollars in 12 months time.

Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-11,032 ; 394 ; 604 ; 21 ; 247 million dollars
15,384 ; -30 ; 30 ; -3 ; 3 million dollars
  • BA paid 250 million dollars in the fourth quarter 247 million dollars liabilities 3 million dollars equity, will pay 3,671 million dollars this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 127,095 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.96 X assets with a 32 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 3,671 million dollars which means a 35 X valuation. A 36 X valuation gives a 4% higher target price 221 dollars.
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