AVIA sharper as cashflow bounces back but expensive
AVIA Current 710 Target 756 + 7%
Mar 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -7%
Last 5 quarters
13% 0% 9% 0% -7%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-75% -75% -77% -77% -74%
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
222, 222, -1,905, -1,905, 305
Balance sheet net cash positive
Last 3 quarters billion rupiah
-1,428, -170, 340
Capital raised worsened slightly , a 7% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,900 2,021 2,142 -1,392 -1,395
Mar 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -7%
Last 5 quarters
13% 0% 9% 0% -7%
- Sales declined seasonally -7% in the first quarter to 1,639 billion rupiah -4% below our 1,705 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,771 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-75% -75% -77% -77% -74%
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -74% profit from 356 to 385 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use the average -76% cost ratio to predict a 381 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
222, 222, -1,905, -1,905, 305
- Free cashflow went positive again from -1,905 to 305 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 114 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -821 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -46 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 369 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash positive
Last 3 quarters billion rupiah
-1,428, -170, 340
- Cash increased 1,288 to 1,596 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,458 to 1,256 billion rupiah so net cash turned positive -170 to 340 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -454 billion rupiah equity payout -233 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 1,411 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened slightly , a 7% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,900 2,021 2,142 -1,392 -1,395
- AVIA 17 quarter capital raised worsened slightly -1,392 to -1,395 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 3 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be -708 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 43,987 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.7 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,464 billion rupiah which means an 30 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a 7% higher target price 756 rupiah.