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AVIA sharper as cashflow bounces back but expensive

AVIA Current 710 Target 756 + 7%

Mar 18, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined seasonally -7%
Last 5 quarters
13% 0% 9% 0% -7%
  • Sales declined seasonally -7% in the first quarter to 1,639 billion rupiah -4% below our 1,705 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 0% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,771 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
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Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-75% -75% -77% -77% -74%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -74% profit from 356 to 385 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
  • We use the average -76% cost ratio to predict a 381 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
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Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
222, 222, -1,905, -1,905, 305
  • Free cashflow went positive again from -1,905 to 305 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 114 billion rupiah investment gains.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -821 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -46 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 369 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
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Balance sheet net cash positive
Last 3 quarters billion rupiah
-1,428, -170, 340
  • Cash increased 1,288 to 1,596 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 1,458 to 1,256 billion rupiah so net cash turned positive -170 to 340 billion rupiah
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -454 billion rupiah equity payout -233 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 1,411 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Capital raised worsened slightly , a 7% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,900 2,021 2,142 -1,392 -1,395
  • AVIA 17 quarter capital raised worsened slightly -1,392 to -1,395 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 3 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be -708 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 43,987 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.7 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,464 billion rupiah which means an 30 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a 7% higher target price 756 rupiah.
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