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AUTO, looking quite sharp as sales rise
AUTO Current 1,095 Target 1,594 + 46%
Apr 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 11%
Last 5 quarters
12% -2% 10% 6% 11%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-95% -97% -95% -97% -96%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
440, -26, 214, 50, 8
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,762, -2,906, -3,159, -3,264, -3,791
Capital paid flat, a 46% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,073, 2,141, 2,160, 2,260, 2,260
Apr 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 11%
Last 5 quarters
12% -2% 10% 6% 11%
- Sales jumped 11% in the first quarter to 4,581 billion rupiah 2% above our 4,490 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,134 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-95% -97% -95% -97% -96%
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -96% profit from 178 to 239 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -96% now.
- We use -96% cost ratio to predict a 263 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
440, -26, 214, 50, 8
- Free cashflow went from 50 to 8 billion rupiah in the first quarter with higher -97 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 61 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -47 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 164 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,762, -2,906, -3,159, -3,264, -3,791
- Cash increased 1,837 to 1,851 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,101 to 5,642 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -3,264 to -3,791 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -301 billion rupiah equity payout -339 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,452 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat, a 46% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,073, 2,141, 2,160, 2,260, 2,260
- AUTO capital from the last 25 quarters was flat at 2,260 to 2,260 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -7 liabilities payment but will be 2,872 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 5,278 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.29 X assets with a 25 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 640 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 46% higher target price of 1,594 rupiah.