sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CL
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MAR
  • PG
  • PEP
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • V
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS
Picture
AUTO.jk Cashflow more positive

Current 1,415 Target 1,847 + 31%

12/29/2022
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth + 26%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 5% of market cap
  • Latest cash minus liabilities -57% of market cap

Sales grew 23%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
10% 6% 11% -13% 23%
3,889 ; 4,112 ; 4,581 ; 4,000 ; 4,915 billion rupiah
  • Sales grew 23% in the third quarter to 4,915 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -1% now.
  • This brings the average to 7% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,739 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 3% 4% 6% 7%
184 ; 178 ; 239 ; 215 ; 457 billion rupiah
  • The cash margin went from 6% to 7% profit from 215 to 457 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 5% now.
  • We use a 7% cash margin to predict a 461 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
239 ; 87 ; 104 ; -10 ; 249 billion rupiah
-25 ; -37 ; -97 ; 25 ; 93 billion rupiah
  • Free cashflow went from 15 to 342 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 93 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 103 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -67 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 318 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,888 ; 1,837 ; 1,851 ; 1,690 ; 2,005 billion rupiah
5,047 ; 5,101 ; 5,642 ; 5,488 ; 5,906 billion rupiah
  • Cash increased 1,690 to 2,005 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 5,488 to 5,906 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,798 to -3,901 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,096 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,629 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-4 ; 49 ; 0 ; -25 ; 26 billion rupiah
1 ; 52 ; 0 ; 214 ; 7 billion rupiah
  • AUTO.jk paid 33 billion rupiah in the third quarter 26 billion rupiah liabilities 7 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,096 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market cap of 6,820 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.36 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,272 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 31% higher target price 1,847 rupiah.
SHARPFOKUS DATA
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • IKBI
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • RIGS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CL
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • IP
  • MAR
  • PG
  • PEP
  • T
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • V
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
  • Subscribe
  • SharpfokUS