AUTO.jk Cashflow more positive
Current 1,415 Target 1,847 + 31%
12/29/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 23%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
10% 6% 11% -13% 23%
3,889 ; 4,112 ; 4,581 ; 4,000 ; 4,915 billion rupiah
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 3% 4% 6% 7%
184 ; 178 ; 239 ; 215 ; 457 billion rupiah
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
239 ; 87 ; 104 ; -10 ; 249 billion rupiah
-25 ; -37 ; -97 ; 25 ; 93 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,888 ; 1,837 ; 1,851 ; 1,690 ; 2,005 billion rupiah
5,047 ; 5,101 ; 5,642 ; 5,488 ; 5,906 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-4 ; 49 ; 0 ; -25 ; 26 billion rupiah
1 ; 52 ; 0 ; 214 ; 7 billion rupiah
Current 1,415 Target 1,847 + 31%
12/29/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 26%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 5% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities -57% of market cap
Sales grew 23%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterlysales
10% 6% 11% -13% 23%
3,889 ; 4,112 ; 4,581 ; 4,000 ; 4,915 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 23% in the third quarter to 4,915 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -1% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,739 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
5% 3% 4% 6% 7%
184 ; 178 ; 239 ; 215 ; 457 billion rupiah
- The cash margin went from 6% to 7% profit from 215 to 457 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 5% now.
- We use a 7% cash margin to predict a 461 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow more positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
239 ; 87 ; 104 ; -10 ; 249 billion rupiah
-25 ; -37 ; -97 ; 25 ; 93 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 15 to 342 billion rupiah in the third quarter with 93 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 103 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -67 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 318 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
1,888 ; 1,837 ; 1,851 ; 1,690 ; 2,005 billion rupiah
5,047 ; 5,101 ; 5,642 ; 5,488 ; 5,906 billion rupiah
- Cash increased 1,690 to 2,005 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 5,488 to 5,906 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,798 to -3,901 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -1,096 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,629 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
-4 ; 49 ; 0 ; -25 ; 26 billion rupiah
1 ; 52 ; 0 ; 214 ; 7 billion rupiah
- AUTO.jk paid 33 billion rupiah in the third quarter 26 billion rupiah liabilities 7 billion rupiah equity, will pay 1,096 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 6,820 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.36 X assets with a 13 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,272 billion rupiah which means a 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 31% higher target price 1,847 rupiah.