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ASRI looking sharp as sales jump
ASRI Current 163 Target 373 + 129%
Apr 14, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 62%
Last 5 quarters
69% 51% 37% 3% 62%
Costs down profit almost tripled
Last 5 quarters
-212% -125% -92% -89% -69%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-266 183 -15 305 194
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-11,216 -11,609 -11,631 -11,622 -11,407
Capital paid improved, a 129% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
127, 173,227, 393, 432
Apr 14, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 62%
Last 5 quarters
69% 51% 37% 3% 62%
- Sales jumped 62% in the fourth quarter to 1,075 billion rupiah 30% above our 828 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 38% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,356 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit almost tripled
Last 5 quarters
-212% -125% -92% -89% -69%
- The cash cost ratio went from -89% to -69% profit almost tripled from 106 to 286 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -94% now.
- We use a -79% cost ratio to predict a 251 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-266 183 -15 305 194
- Free cashflow went from 305 to 194 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with high -158 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 167 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -91 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 195 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-11,216 -11,609 -11,631 -11,622 -11,407
- Cash increased 837 to 991 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 12,459 to 12,398 billion rupiah so net cash improved -11,622 to -11,407 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -666 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -10,741 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 129% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
127, 173,227, 393, 432
- ASRI 24 quarters capital paid improved 393 to 432 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -39 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 1,098 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,203 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.14 X assets with a 31 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 666 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 11 X valuation gives a 129% higher target price 373 rupiah.