ASRI Cashflow up again
ASRI.jk Current 179 Target 225 + 26%
11/25/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -21%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
3% 62% -12% 6% -21%
662 1,075 947 1,007 791
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
11% 31% 20% -10% 56%
106 286 137 82 -110
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
423 352 432 103 359
-119 -158 -126 -94 -196
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
837 991 1,259 1,254 1,387
12,459 12,398 12,441 12,082 12,562
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
166 39 39 22 45
0 0 0 0 0
11/25/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 19%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 19% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- Latest net cash -318% of market cap
Sales declined -21%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
3% 62% -12% 6% -21%
662 1,075 947 1,007 791
- Sales declined -21% in the third quarter to 791 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 906 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
11% 31% 20% -10% 56%
106 286 137 82 -110
- The cash margin went from -10% to 56% profit from 82 to -110 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 24% now.
- We use a 24% cash margin to predict a 78 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
423 352 432 103 359
-119 -158 -126 -94 -196
- Free cashflow went from 9 to 163 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -196 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 168 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -139 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 110 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
837 991 1,259 1,254 1,387
12,459 12,398 12,441 12,082 12,562
- Cash increased 1,254 to 1,387 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 12,082 to 12,562 billion rupiah so net cash was down -10,828 to -11,175 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -442 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -10,733 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
166 39 39 22 45
0 0 0 0 0
- ASRI.jk paid 45 billion rupiah in the third quarter 45 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity & will pay 442 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 3,517 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.16 X assets with a 53 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 442 billion rupiah which means a 8 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 26% higher target price 225 rupiah.
