ASRI sales up again
ASRI Current 177 Target 306 + 73%
25 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
37% 3% 62% -12% 6%
642 662 1,075 947 1,007
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-91% -49% -66% -47% -90%
65 106 286 137 82
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
75 423 352 432 103
-90 -119 -158 -126 -94
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
700 837 991 1,259 1,254
12,331 12,459 12,398 12,441 12,082
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
227 393 432 471 493
54 166 39 39 22
0 0 0 0 0
25 Aug 2022
1 minute read
- ASRI last 12 months sales growth well above average at + 57%
- ASRI last 12 months cashflow also high + 23% of market cap
- ASRI last 12 months Capital + 8% of market cap
- ASRI latest net cash still high leverage but improving, -311% of market cap
Sales grew 6%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
37% 3% 62% -12% 6%
642 662 1,075 947 1,007
- Sales grew 6% in the second quarter to 1,007 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 15% growth.
- We predict average growth of 8% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,243 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-91% -49% -66% -47% -90%
65 106 286 137 82
- The cash cost ratio went from -47% to -90% profit from 137 to 82 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -63% now.
- We use the average -69% cost ratio to predict a 354 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
75 423 352 432 103
-90 -119 -158 -126 -94
- Free cashflow went from 305 to 9 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -94 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 203 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -158 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 225 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
700 837 991 1,259 1,254
12,331 12,459 12,398 12,441 12,082
- Cash declined 1,259 to 1,254 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 12,441 to 12,082 billion rupiah so net cash was up -11,182 to -10,828 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -901 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -9,927 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
227 393 432 471 493
54 166 39 39 22
0 0 0 0 0
- ASRI cumulative capital improved 471 to 493 billion rupiah with + 22 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 1,394 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,478 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.16 X assets with a 22 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 925 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 73% higher target price 306 rupiah.
