ASII sharp as cashflow doubles
ASII Current 6,050 Target 13,976 + 131%
Jul 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined slightly
Last 5 quarters
55,700 60,002 66,083 71,871 71,821
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -79% -85% -83% -74%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7,966 6,945 8,546 5,774 11,348
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-92,000 -92,125 -87,749 -90,600 -92,206
Last 12 months capital + 9% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
57,645 61,996 66,209 68,785 79,654
Jul 29, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined slightly
Last 5 quarters
55,700 60,002 66,083 71,871 71,821
- Sales declined slightly in the second quarter to 71,821 billion rupiah -5% below our 75,412 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 83,112 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -79% -85% -83% -74%
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -74% profit from 9,272 to 14,645 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -80% now.
- We use the average -80% cost ratio to predict a 12,550 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
7,966 6,945 8,546 5,774 11,348
- Free cashflow went from 5,774 to 11,348 billion rupiah in the second quarter with 62 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 8,153 billion rupiah 13% of market cap.
- We assume -1,568 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 14,145 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-92,000 -92,125 -87,749 -90,600 -92,206
- Cash increased 67,255 to 68,234 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities increased 157,855 to 160,440 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -90,600 to -92,206 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -14,977 billion rupiah equity payout -32,832 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -50,603 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Last 12 months capital + 9% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
57,645 61,996 66,209 68,785 79,654
- ASII 29 quarters capital improved 68,785 to 79,654 billion rupiah in the second quarter. with + 1,035 billion rupiah from liabilities + 9,834 billion rupiah from equity & will be 127,463 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 244,926 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.62 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 56,580 billion rupiah which means a 4 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 131% higher target price 13,976 rupiah.
