ASII 6% yield forecast
ASII Current 6,550 Target 10,941 + 67%
10/31/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
8% 10% 9% -0% 8%
60,002 66,083 71,871 71,821 77,662
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-79% -85% -83% -74% -87%
7,918 6,568 9,272 14,645 8,095
Cashflow much lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
10,271 8,225 9,103 11,286 11,023
-3,326 321 -3,329 62 -9,374
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
60,538 63,947 67,255 68,234 69,578
152,663 151,696 157,855 160,440 174,153
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
61,996 66,209 68,785 79,654 80,415
4,249 2,167 2,509 1,035 -1,577
102 2,046 67 9,834 2,338
10/31/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 29%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 10% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 7% of market cap
- Latest net cash -39% of market cap
Sales grew 8%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
8% 10% 9% -0% 8%
60,002 66,083 71,871 71,821 77,662
- Sales grew 8% in the third quarter to 77,662 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 88,972 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-79% -85% -83% -74% -87%
7,918 6,568 9,272 14,645 8,095
- The cash cost ratio went from -74% to -87% profit from 14,645 to 8,095 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -82% now.
- We use a -82% cost ratio to predict a 12,886 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow much lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
10,271 8,225 9,103 11,286 11,023
-3,326 321 -3,329 62 -9,374
- Free cashflow went from 11,348 to 1,649 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -9,374 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6,829 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -3,080 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 12,304 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
60,538 63,947 67,255 68,234 69,578
152,663 151,696 157,855 160,440 174,153
- Cash increased 68,234 to 69,578 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 160,440 to 174,153 billion rupiah so net cash was down -92,206 to -104,575 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -15,514 billion rupiah equity payout -33,701 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -70,874 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
61,996 66,209 68,785 79,654 80,415
4,249 2,167 2,509 1,035 -1,577
102 2,046 67 9,834 2,338
- ASII cumulative capital improved 79,654 to 80,415 billion rupiah with -1,577 & + 2,338 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 129,630 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 265,168 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.64 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 49,215 billion rupiah (vs 27,317 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 5 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 67% higher target price 10,941 rupiah.
