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ASTRA LOOKING SHARP as sales rise to a record
ASII Current 7,200 Target 11,904 + 65%
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters
15% 8% 8% 10% 9%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -84% -79% -85% -83%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
8,866, 7,966, 6,945, 8,546, 5,774
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-93,069, -92,000, -92,125, -87,749, -90,600
Capital paid improved , a 65% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
51,248, 57,645, 61,996, 66,209, 68,785
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters
15% 8% 8% 10% 9%
- Sales grew 9% in the first quarter to 71,871 billion rupiah 9% above our 66,083 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 9% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 80,838 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-84% -84% -79% -85% -83%
- The cash cost ratio went from -85% to -83% profit from 6,568 to 9,272 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use -83% cost ratio to predict a 11,037 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
8,866, 7,966, 6,945, 8,546, 5,774
- Free cashflow went from 8,546 to 5,774 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a large -3,329 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 7,308 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -1,436 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 12,507 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-93,069, -92,000, -92,125, -87,749, -90,600
- Cash increased 63,947 to 67,255 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 151,696 to 157,855 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -87,749 to -90,600 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -16,924 billion rupiah equity payout -31,267 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -59,333 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 65% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
51,248, 57,645, 61,996, 66,209, 68,785
- ASII 29 quarters capital paid improved 66,209 to 68,785 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with -2,509 liabilities -67 billion rupiah equity payouts & will be 116,976 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 291,482 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 48,191 billion rupiah which means a 6 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 65% higher target price 11,904 rupiah.