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ASGR sharp with a 9% yield forecast
ASGR Current 895 Target 1,985 + 122%
Jul 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
640, 742, 1,300, 618, 614
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -91% -92% -90% -90%
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-133 218 437 -104 141
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-155 -147 24 501 295
Capital last 12 months + 4% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
704 704 721 721 747
Jul 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
640, 742, 1,300, 618, 614
- Sales declined -1% in the second quarter to 614 billion rupiah -26% below our 834 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 10% growth.
- We predict average growth of 16% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 976 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters
-90% -91% -92% -90% -90%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -90% profit declined from 16 to 15 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use a lower -88% cost ratio to predict a 75 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-133 218 437 -104 141
- Free cashflow went from -104 to 141 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -13 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 173 billion rupiah 57% of market cap.
- We assume -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 112 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-155 -147 24 501 295
- Cash declined 1,166 to 1,062 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities increased 665 to 767 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 501 to 295 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -113 billion rupiah equity payout -142 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 628 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital last 12 months + 4% of market cap.
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
704 704 721 721 747
- ASGR cumulative capital paid from the last 30 quarters improved 721 to 747 billion rupiah in the quarter with 0 from liabilities + 26 billion rupiah from equity & will be 1,003 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,207 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.50 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 446 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 122% higher target price of 1,985 rupiah.
