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ASGR 7% yield forecast

ASGR Current 885 Target 1,628 + 84%

10/29/22
1 minute read

  • ASGR last 12 months sales growth + 10%
  • ASGR last 12 months cash flow + 45% of market cap
  • ASGR last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
  • ASGR latest net cash + 30% of market cap

Sales grew seasonally 33%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
16% 75% -52% -1% 33%
742 1,300 618 614 814
  • Sales grew seasonally 33% in the third quarter to 814 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 5% now.
  • This brings the average to 14% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 16% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,148 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.

Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-91% -92% -90% -90% -91%
19 50 16 15 33
  • The cash cost ratio went from -90% to -91% profit from 15 to 33 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
  • We use a -91% cost ratio to predict a 63 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
220 449 -96 154 58
-1 -5 -8 -13 -2
  • Free cashflow went from 141 to 56 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 134 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -2 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 92 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
624 1,051 1,166 1,062 1,119
771 1,027 665 767 762
  • Cash increased 1,062 to 1,119 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 767 to 762 billion rupiah so net cash was up 295 to 357 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -84 billion rupiah equity payout -141 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 639 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
704 721 721 747 747
0 0 0 0 0
0 10 0 26 0
  • ASGR cumulative capital improved 747 to 747 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 973 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 1,194 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.49 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 7% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 366 billion rupiah (vs 538 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 3 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 84% higher target price 1,628 rupiah.
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