Other stocks here
ASGR sales down, but still sharp with higher net cash
ASGR Current 980 Target 1,763 + 80%
Apr 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -52%
-38% 4% 16% 75% -52%
Costs down profit down
-91% -90% -91% -92% -90%
Cashflow negative again
71, -133, 218, 437, -104
Balance sheet net cash improved
-161, -155, -147, 24, 283
Capital paid flat , a 80% higher target price
692, 704, 704, 721, 721
Apr 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -52%
-38% 4% 16% 75% -52%
- Sales declined -52% in the fourth quarter to 618 billion rupiah -48% below our 1,188 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 11% growth.
- We predict average growth of 16% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,036 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Costs down profit down
-91% -90% -91% -92% -90%
- The cash cost ratio went from -92% to -90% profit from 50 to 16 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -91% now.
- We use the latest -90% cost ratio to predict a 58 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Cashflow negative again
71, -133, 218, 437, -104
- Free cashflow went negative again from 437 to -104 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with -8 billion rupiah investment Cashflow & negative working capital.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 105 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -4 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 100 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
-161, -155, -147, 24, 283
- Cash declined 1,051 to 947 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,027 to 665 billion rupiah so net cash improved 24 to 283 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -160 billion rupiah equity payout -123 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 519 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid flat , a 80% higher target price
692, 704, 704, 721, 721
- ASGR capital from the last 29 quarters was flat at 721 billion rupiah in the third quarter but will be 1,005 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,322 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.59 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 12% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 396 billion rupiah which means an 3 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 80% higher target price of 1,763 rupiah.