sharpfokus
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • MAR
  • PEP
  • PG
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital
Picture

ARTO faster sales growth

ARTO Current 5,400 Target 5,552 + 3%

October 21, 2022
1 minute read


  • ARTO last 12 months sales growth + 105%
  • ARTO last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
  • ARTO last 12 months Capital 0% of market cap
  • ARTO latest net cash -8% of market cap

Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
61% 33% 29% 8% 11%
202 270 347 375 415
  • Sales grew 11% in the third quarter to 415 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -9% now.
  • This brings the average to 20% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 15% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 726 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions & profit billion rupiah
-77% -33% -71% -62% -68%
22 50 60 109 97
14 119 19 10 12
  • The cash cost ratio went from -62% to -68% profit from 10 to 12 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
  • We use the latest -68% cost ratio to predict a 280 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
586 -631 656 988 -364
-1,114 -429 -366 -685 -207
  • Free cashflow went from 303 to -571 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -207 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -259 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -22 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 248 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
​
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, assets & liabilities billion rupiah
2,479 1,419 1,710 2,013 1,442
10,978 12,312 12,825 14,612 15,823
2,846 3,953 4,400 6,076 7,185
  • Cash declined 2,013 to 1,442 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 6,076 to 7,185 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,063 to -5,743 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & -180 billion rupiah equity -29 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,930 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-8,352 -8,352 -8,352 -8,352 -8,352
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
  • ARTO cumulative capital was flat at -8,352 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be -8,172 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 76,556 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at X assets with a years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,514 billion rupiah (vs -1,037 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 51 X valuation. A 52 X valuation gives a 3% higher target price 5,552 rupiah.
Picture
SUBSCRIBE
  • Asjmp
  • English
  • ABMM
  • ADMF
  • AVIA
  • BBTN
  • BISI
  • BLTZ
  • BNII
  • BNLI
  • BRMS
  • BUKK
  • BVIC
  • CMNP
  • CMNT
  • DLTA
  • DRMA
  • DVLA
  • DYAN
  • EAST
  • FASW
  • GOTO
  • HEXA
  • INTD
  • IPPE
  • ITMG
  • JIHD
  • KDSI
  • KIJA
  • MEGA
  • MERK
  • MMLP
  • MPMX
  • MTDL
  • MTEL
  • NFCX
  • NISP
  • OKAS
  • SLIS
  • STAA
  • STTP
  • TGKA
  • VICI
  • WEHA
  • WIRG
  • WOMF
  • Home
  • BERK
  • CVX
  • CVX
  • FB
  • GOLD
  • INTC
  • MAR
  • PEP
  • PG
  • TSN
  • TWTR
  • TXN
  • Presents
  • Kenny
  • Ranks
  • Palmweekly
  • Stockbit
  • TIRA
  • Meeting
  • MBAP
  • HTUFS
  • 7Steps
  • INTA
  • Model
  • MCOL
  • ESTI
  • Intern
  • Stockbitapp
  • SONA
  • Model1
  • Pdf
  • OBMD
  • PSKT
  • DGIK
  • Data
  • Above
  • IATA
  • mm
  • Untitled
  • Capital