ARTO faster sales growth
ARTO Current 5,400 Target 5,552 + 3%
October 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
61% 33% 29% 8% 11%
202 270 347 375 415
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions & profit billion rupiah
-77% -33% -71% -62% -68%
22 50 60 109 97
14 119 19 10 12
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
586 -631 656 988 -364
-1,114 -429 -366 -685 -207
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, assets & liabilities billion rupiah
2,479 1,419 1,710 2,013 1,442
10,978 12,312 12,825 14,612 15,823
2,846 3,953 4,400 6,076 7,185
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-8,352 -8,352 -8,352 -8,352 -8,352
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
October 21, 2022
1 minute read
- ARTO last 12 months sales growth + 105%
- ARTO last 12 months cash flow -1% of market cap
- ARTO last 12 months Capital 0% of market cap
- ARTO latest net cash -8% of market cap
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
61% 33% 29% 8% 11%
202 270 347 375 415
- Sales grew 11% in the third quarter to 415 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -9% now.
- This brings the average to 20% growth.
- We predict average growth of 15% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 726 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions & profit billion rupiah
-77% -33% -71% -62% -68%
22 50 60 109 97
14 119 19 10 12
- The cash cost ratio went from -62% to -68% profit from 10 to 12 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
- We use the latest -68% cost ratio to predict a 280 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
586 -631 656 988 -364
-1,114 -429 -366 -685 -207
- Free cashflow went from 303 to -571 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -207 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -259 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -22 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 248 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, assets & liabilities billion rupiah
2,479 1,419 1,710 2,013 1,442
10,978 12,312 12,825 14,612 15,823
2,846 3,953 4,400 6,076 7,185
- Cash declined 2,013 to 1,442 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 6,076 to 7,185 billion rupiah so net cash was down -4,063 to -5,743 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -180 billion rupiah equity -29 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -4,930 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-8,352 -8,352 -8,352 -8,352 -8,352
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
- ARTO cumulative capital was flat at -8,352 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter but will be -8,172 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 76,556 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at X assets with a years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,514 billion rupiah (vs -1,037 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 51 X valuation. A 52 X valuation gives a 3% higher target price 5,552 rupiah.
