ARNA 5% yield forecast
ARNA Current 900 Target 1,285 + 43%
October 17, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
9% 5% 11% -17% 5%
639 670 744 614 645
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-76% -78% -74% -74% -72%
128 125 173 136 154
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
113 134 202 18 159
-66 -15 -39 -29 -47
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
511 603 452 460 516
741 670 739 663 662
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
959 987 1,301 1,282 1,338
-37 26 -14 -19 57
-1 2 328 0 -1
October 17, 2022
1 minute read
- ARNA last 12 months sales growth + 1%
- ARNA last 12 months cash flow + 6% of market cap
- ARNA last 12 months Capital + 6% of market cap
- ARNA latest net cash -2% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
9% 5% 11% -17% 5%
639 670 744 614 645
- Sales grew 5% in the third quarter to 645 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 2% now.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 682 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-76% -78% -74% -74% -72%
128 125 173 136 154
- The cash cost ratio went from -74% to -72% profit from 136 to 154 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -74% now.
- We use the average -74% cost ratio to predict a 150 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
113 134 202 18 159
-66 -15 -39 -29 -47
- Free cashflow went from -12 to 112 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -47 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 96 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -38 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 137 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
511 603 452 460 516
741 670 739 663 662
- Cash increased 460 to 516 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 663 to 662 billion rupiah so net cash was up -203 to -146 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & -355 billion rupiah equity -123 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 49 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
959 987 1,301 1,282 1,338
-37 26 -14 -19 57
-1 2 328 0 -1
- ARNA cumulative capital improved 1,282 to 1,338 billion rupiah with + 57 & -1 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 1,815 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,544 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.62 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 549 billion rupiah (vs 383 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 12 X valuation. A 17 X valuation gives a 43% higher target price 1,285 rupiah.
