Other stocks here
ARNA looking very sharp with a 6% yield forecast
ARNA Current 955 Target 1,510 +58%
Apr 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters
11% -12% 9% 5% 11%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-78% -78% -76% -78% -74%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
141, 79, 47, 119, 164
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-414 -305 -230 -68 -287
Capital paid improved, a 58% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
773, 997, 959, 987, 1,301
Apr 18, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters
11% -12% 9% 5% 11%
- Sales grew 11% in the first quarter to 744 billion rupiah slightly above our 743 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average growth to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 835 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-78% -78% -76% -78% -74%
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -74% profit from 125 to 173 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -76% now.
- We use the average -76% cost ratio to predict a 175 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
141, 79, 47, 119, 164
- Free cashflow went from 119 to 164 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -39 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 102 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -34 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 165 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet higher leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-414 -305 -230 -68 -287
- Cash declined 603 to 452 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 670 to 739 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -68 to -287 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -433 billion rupiah equity payout -137 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -141 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 58% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
773, 997, 959, 987, 1,301
- ARNA 29 quarters capital paid improved 987 to 1,301 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 14 billion rupiah liabilities -328 billion rupiah equity & will be 1,870 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,944 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.15 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 6% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 578 billion rupiah which means an 12 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 58% higher target price of 1,510 rupiah.