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ARCI sales down

ARCI.jk Current 338 Target 246 -27%

11/24/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -47%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -4% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital -2% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -87% of market cap
​
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
13% 14% -26% -21% -20%
1,361 1,556 1,148 907 722
  • Sales declined -20% in the third quarter to 722 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to -13% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 819 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
32% 23% 23% 30% 21%
344 257 136 139 16
  • The cash margin went from 30% to 21% profit from 139 to 16 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 24% now.
  • We use a 24% cash margin to predict a 65 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
714 143 522 -290 317
-394 -214 -202 -265 -367
  • Free cashflow went from -556 to -50 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -367 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -89 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -164 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 31 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
307 176 331 182 157
6,706 6,524 6,476 6,802 7,460
  • Cash declined 182 to 157 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 6,802 to 7,460 billion rupiah so net cash was down -6,620 to -7,303 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -122 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -7,180 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,092 31 163 -405 -6
0 26 0 0 0
  • ARCI.jk (raised) -6 billion rupiah in the third quarter -6 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity but will pay 122 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 8,394 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.73 X assets with a 94 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 122 billion rupiah which means a 69 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -27% lower target price 246 rupiah.
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