ARCI sales down
ARCI.jk Current 338 Target 246 -27%
11/24/2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
13% 14% -26% -21% -20%
1,361 1,556 1,148 907 722
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
32% 23% 23% 30% 21%
344 257 136 139 16
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
714 143 522 -290 317
-394 -214 -202 -265 -367
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
307 176 331 182 157
6,706 6,524 6,476 6,802 7,460
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,092 31 163 -405 -6
0 26 0 0 0
11/24/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -47%
- Last 12 months cash flow -4% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -2% of market cap
- Latest net cash -87% of market cap
Sales declined -20%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
13% 14% -26% -21% -20%
1,361 1,556 1,148 907 722
- Sales declined -20% in the third quarter to 722 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
- This brings the average to -13% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 819 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit down
Last 5 quarters margin, profit billion rupiah
32% 23% 23% 30% 21%
344 257 136 139 16
- The cash margin went from 30% to 21% profit from 139 to 16 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 24% now.
- We use a 24% cash margin to predict a 65 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow less negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
714 143 522 -290 317
-394 -214 -202 -265 -367
- Free cashflow went from -556 to -50 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -367 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -89 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -164 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 31 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
307 176 331 182 157
6,706 6,524 6,476 6,802 7,460
- Cash declined 182 to 157 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 6,802 to 7,460 billion rupiah so net cash was down -6,620 to -7,303 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -122 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -7,180 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital (raised)
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,092 31 163 -405 -6
0 26 0 0 0
- ARCI.jk (raised) -6 billion rupiah in the third quarter -6 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity but will pay 122 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 8,394 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.73 X assets with a 94 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 122 billion rupiah which means a 69 X valuation. A 50 X valuation gives a -27% lower target price 246 rupiah.
