ARCI average Cashflow ~zero
ARCI Current 320 Target 347 + 9%
Aug 6, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -23%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
43% 14% 15% -27% -23%
84, 95, 109, 80, 62
Costs down profit flat
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-72% -68% -77% -77% -70%
17 24 18 10 10
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
32 50 10 36 -20
-38 -28 -15 -14 -18
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
16 21 12 23 12
525 468 457 452 464
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
188 265 269 280 252
8 76 2 11 -28
-32 0 2 0 0
Aug 6, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 12% of market cap
- Latest net cash -82% of market cap
Sales declined -23%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
43% 14% 15% -27% -23%
84, 95, 109, 80, 62
- Sales declined -23% in the second quarter to 62 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -3% now.
- This brings the average to -5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 78 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit flat
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-72% -68% -77% -77% -70%
17 24 18 10 10
- The cash cost ratio went from -77% to -70% keeping profit at 10 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -73% now.
- We use a -71% cost ratio to predict a 13 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
32 50 10 36 -20
-38 -28 -15 -14 -18
- Free cashflow went from 22 to -38 million dollars in the second quarter with -18 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 0 million dollars now.
- We assume -16 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a positive 6 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
16 21 12 23 12
525 468 457 452 464
- Cash declined 23 to 12 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 452 to 464 million dollars so net cash was down -429 to -452 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout -22 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -430 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
188 265 269 280 252
8 76 2 11 -28
-32 0 2 0 0
- ARCI cumulative capital worsened 280 to 252 million dollars with -28 & 0 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be 274 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 548 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.74 X assets with a 32 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 22 million dollars which means a 25 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a 9% higher target price 347 rupiah.
