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ARCI, a bit dull with negative cashflow again
ARCI Current 470 Target 504 + 7%
Apr 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters
-19% -40% 0% 34% 15%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-61% -67% -67% -68% -77%
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters million dollars
21, -6, -6, 22, -5
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-466 -535 -623 -447 -445
Capital paid improved, a 7% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
236, 212, 188, 265, 269
Apr 13, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 15%
Last 5 quarters
-19% -40% 0% 34% 15%
- Sales grew 15% in the fourth quarter to 109 million dollars 11% above our 98 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 120 million dollars in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-61% -67% -67% -68% -77%
- The cash cost ratio went from -68% to -77% profit from 24 to 18 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -70% now.
- We use the average -68% cost ratio to predict a higher 32 million dollars profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters million dollars
21, -6, -6, 22, -5
- Free cashflow turned negative again from 22 to -5 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -15 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 2 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -15 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 24 million dollars Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-466 -535 -623 -447 -445
- Cash declined 22 to 12 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 468 to 457 million dollars so net cash improved -447 to -445 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -12 million dollars equity payout -77 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -368 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 7% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
236, 212, 188, 265, 269
- ARCI 12 quarters capital paid improved 265 to 269 million dollars in the fourth quarter with -2 million dollars liabilities -2 million dollars equity payouts & will be 363 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 834 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 1.15 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 89 million dollars which means an 9 X valuation. A 10 X valuation gives a 7% higher target price 504 rupiah.