ANTM lower sales
ANTM Current 1,900 Target 1,592 -16%
Sep 4, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-12% 14% 30% -19% -7%
8,065 9,201 11,969 9,747 9,026
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-90% -91% -97% -83% -100%
530 551 151 1,465 61
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
527 2,039 510 462 366
-184 -293 -1,148 458 -684
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
5,122 6,368 5,089 4,159 3,234
12,455 12,957 12,079 9,236 10,784
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,639 -1,185 -546 1,318 1,956
136 454 640 1,864 -293
402 0 0 0 931
Sep 4, 2022
1 minute read
- ANTM last 12 months sales growth + 12%
- ANTM last 12 months cash flow + 4% of market cap
- ANTM last 12 months Capital 8X average + 8% of market cap
- ANTM latest net cash -17% of market cap
Sales declined -7%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
-12% 14% 30% -19% -7%
8,065 9,201 11,969 9,747 9,026
- Sales declined -7% in the second quarter to 9,026 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 5% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 9,624 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-90% -91% -97% -83% -100%
530 551 151 1,465 61
- The cash cost ratio went from -83% to -100% profit from 1,465 to 61 billion rupiah (from FX gains) in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use the average -93% cost ratio to predict a 499 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
527 2,039 510 462 366
-184 -293 -1,148 458 -684
- Free cashflow went from 920 to -318 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -684 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 427 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -326 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 399 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
5,122 6,368 5,089 4,159 3,234
12,455 12,957 12,079 9,236 10,784
- Cash declined 4,159 to 3,234 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 9,236 to 10,784 billion rupiah so net cash was down -5,077 to -7,550 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -803 billion rupiah equity payout -792 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -6,758 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-1,639 -1,185 -546 1,318 1,956
136 454 640 1,864 -293
402 0 0 0 931
- ANTM cumulative capital improved 1,318 to 1,956 billion rupiah with -293 & + 931 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 3,551 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 45,659 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.40 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,594 billion rupiah (vs 1,709 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 29 X valuation. A 24 X valuation gives a -16% lower target price 1,592 rupiah.
