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ANTM looking sharper as capital turns positive
ANTM Current 2,490 Target 3,283 + 32%
May 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -19%
Last 5 quarters
-1% -12% 14% 30% -19%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-93% -90% -91% -97% -83%
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,758, 343, 1,746, -638, 920
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-7,565 -7,333 -6,589 -6,990 -5,077
Capital turned positive , a 32% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,177 -1,639 -1,185 -546 1,318
May 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -19%
Last 5 quarters
-1% -12% 14% 30% -19%
- Sales declined seasonally -19% in the first quarter to 9,747 billion rupiah -24% below our 12,807 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 11,153 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-93% -90% -91% -97% -83%
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -83% profit from 151 to 1,465 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -90% now.
- We use the average -90% cost ratio to predict a 886 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,758, 343, 1,746, -638, 920
- Free cashflow went from -638 to 920 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 458 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 593 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -184 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 911 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-7,565 -7,333 -6,589 -6,990 -5,077
- Cash declined 5,089 to 4,159 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 12,079 to 9,236 billion rupiah so net cash improved -6,990 to -5,077 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,395 billion rupiah equity payout -1,713 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,886 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital turned positive , a 32% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,177 -1,639 -1,185 -546 1,318
- ANTM 29 quarter capital turned positive -546 to 1,318 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -1,864 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 4,427 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 59,837 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.87 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,586 billion rupiah which means a 17 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 32% higher target price 3,283 rupiah.