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ANJT cashflow positive again

ANJT Current 715 Target 1,088 + 52%

11/8/22
1 minute read


  • Last 12 months sales growth -18%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 14% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 19% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -114% of market cap

Sales declined -16%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
14% 8% -1% -9% -16%
71 76 76 69 58
  • Sales declined -16% in the third quarter to 58 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -0% now.
  • This brings the average to -4% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 64 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.

Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-72% -73% -76% -78% -85%
13.4 14.0 11.2 8.1 1.7
  • The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -85% profit from 8.1 to 1.7 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
  • We use a -75% cost ratio to predict a 9.2 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
22 23 23 0 10
-9 -14 -3 -9 -8
  • Free cashflow went positive from -9 to 2 million dollars in the third quarter with -8 investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 6 million dollars now.
  • We assume -7 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 9 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
24 27 39 27 18
225 219 219 212 199
  • Cash declined 27 to 18 million dollars in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 212 to 199 million dollars so net cash was up -185 to -181 million dollars .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -3 million dollars equity payout -33 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -148 million dollars in 12 months time.

Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
-142 -135 -127 -123 -113
1 1 1 2 1
10 7 8 5 1
  • ANJT cumulative capital improved -123 to -113 million dollars with + 1 & + 1 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -76 million dollars in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 159 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.26 X assets with a 17 years payback & a 2% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 36 million dollars which means a 4 X valuation. An 8 X valuation gives a 52% higher target price 1,088 rupiah.
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