ANJT short term dip
ANJT Current 850 Target 1,537 + 81%
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -9%
Last 5 quarters
62, 71, 76, 76, 69
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-75% -72% -73% -76% -78%
Cashflow negative, last 12 months + 17% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
9 13 10 20 -9
Balance sheet net cash worse, last 12 months change + 14% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-212 -201 -192 -181 -185
Capital improved, last 12 months + 15% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-153 -142 -135 -127 -123
Aug 1, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -9%
Last 5 quarters
62, 71, 76, 76, 69
- Sales declined -9% in the second quarter to 69 million dollars -13% below our 79 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 76 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-75% -72% -73% -76% -78%
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -78% profit from 11.2 to 8.1 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -75% now.
- We use -75% cost ratio to predict a 12.2 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative, last 12 months + 17% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
9 13 10 20 -9
- Free cashflow went from 20 to -9 million dollars in the second quarter with -9 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 8 million dollars now.
- We assume -6 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 13 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worse, last 12 months change + 14% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-212 -201 -192 -181 -185
- Cash declined 39 to 27 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 219 to 212 million dollars so net cash worsened -181 to -185 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -5 million dollars equity payout -39 million dollars liabilities net cash will be -139 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved, last 12 months + 15% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-153 -142 -135 -127 -123
- ANJT 30 quarter capital improved -127 to -123 million dollars in the second quarter with + 5 million dollars from liabilities -1 million dollars from equity & will be -79 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 195 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.30 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 50 million dollars which means a 4 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 81% higher target price 1,537 rupiah.
