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AMZN looking much sharper as cash flow jumps
AMZN Current 2,486 Target 3,622 + 46%
Apr 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -15%
Last 5 quarters
-14% 4% -2% 24% -15%
Costs down profit down on non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-70% -78% -77% -98% -71%
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
6,126, -6,016, -964 ,-2,525, 13,416
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-185,923 -205,136 -231,898 -246,084 -240,373
Capital raised worsened , a 46% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-16,044 -34,491 -34,408 -33,568 -38,335
Apr 30, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -15%
Last 5 quarters
-14% 4% -2% 24% -15%
- Sales declined seasonally -15% in the first quarter to 116,444 million dollars -3% below our 119,548 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 127,810 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down on non cash costs
Last 5 quarters
-70% -78% -77% -98% -71%
- The cash cost ratio went from -98% to -71% profit from 22,086 to -2,790 million dollars in the first quarter on non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use the average -81% cost ratio to predict a 10,855 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow much higher
Last 5 quarters million dollars
6,126, -6,016, -964 ,-2,525, 13,416
- Free cashflow went from -2,525 to 13,416 million dollars in the first quarter with 906 million dollars investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 978 million dollars now.
- We assume -8,666 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 15,590 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-185,923 -205,136 -231,898 -246,084 -240,373
- Cash increased 36,220 to 36,393 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 282,304 to 276,766 million dollars so net cash improved -246,084 to -240,373 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -32,021 million dollars equity payout -116,022 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -207,710 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened , a 46% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-16,044 -34,491 -34,408 -33,568 -38,335
- AMZN 29 quarter capital raised worsened -33,568 to -38,335 million dollars in the first quarter with 7,512 million dollars new liabilities, a -2,666 million dollars equity payment but will be 15,241 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,470,663 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.75 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 53,576 million dollars which means an 27 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a 46% higher target price 3,622 dollars.