AMZN cashflow in recovery
AMZN Current 135 Target 164 + 22%
31 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
113,080 110,812 137,412 116,444 113,080
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-78% -77% -98% -71% -78%
Cashflow last 12 months + 0.3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-6,016 -964 -2,525 13,416 -6,016
Balance sheet change in net cash last 12 months -3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-205,136 -231,898 -246,084 -240,373 -246,084
Capital last 12 months -2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-34,491 -34,408 -33,568 -38,335 -56,782
31 Jul 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters million dollars
113,080 110,812 137,412 116,444 113,080
- Sales declined -3% in the second quarter to 113,080 million dollars -7% below our 121,102 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 121,671 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters
-78% -77% -98% -71% -78%
- The cash cost ratio went from -71% to -78% profit from -3,844 to 7,778 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -81% now.
- We use an average -81% cost ratio to predict a 15,832 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow last 12 months + 0.3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-6,016 -964 -2,525 13,416 -6,016
- Free cashflow went from 13,416 to -6,016 million dollars in the second quarter with -22,080 million dollars investment cashflow including a large securities purchase .
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 978 million dollars now.
- We assume lower -8,666 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 11,627 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet change in net cash last 12 months -3% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-205,136 -231,898 -246,084 -240,373 -246,084
- Cash declined 36,393 to 36,220 million dollars in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities increased 276,766 to 282,304 million dollars so net cash worsened -240,373 to -246,084 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -38,253 million dollars equity payout -8,253 million dollars liabilities payment net cash will be -226,615 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital last 12 months -2% of market cap
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-34,491 -34,408 -33,568 -38,335 -56,782
- AMZN 30 quarter capital worsened -38,335 to -56,782 million dollars in the second quarter with -18,447 million dollars from liabilities 0 million dollars from equity & will be -10,275 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,374,817 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 3.35 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 46,507 million dollars which means a 30 X valuation. A 36 X valuation gives a 22% higher target price 164 dollars.
