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AMRT still looking sharp despite higher investment spending

AMRT Current 1,485 Target 1,932 +30%

Apr 2, 2022
1 minute read

Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters
6% -1% 18% -7% 3%
  • Sales grew 3% in the fourth quarter to 21,730 billion rupiah -0% below our 21,772 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of another 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 24,124 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.

Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-91% -92% -94% -94% -92%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -92% profit from 263 to 850 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
  • The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
  • We use the latest -92% cost ratio to predict a 1,036 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.

Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,552 -26 357 697 498
  • Free cashflow went from 697 to 498 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with higher -1,200 billion rupiah investment spending.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 498 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume lower -915 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 855 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.

Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,456 -16,924 -15,652 -15,835 -15,234
  • Cash increased 2,522 to 3,270 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 18,357 to 18,504 billion rupiah so net cash improved -15,835 to -15,234 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -786 billion rupiah equity payout -2,422 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -12,387 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital paid improved, a 30% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
934, 927, 2,378, 3,525, 3,529
  • AMRT 28 quarters capital paid improved 3,525 to 3,529 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -4 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 6,313 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 61,664 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.22 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 3,208 billion rupiah which means an 19 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price 1,932 rupiah.
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