AMRT cashflow more negative
AMRT Current 2,100 Target 1,589 -24%
8 Sep 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
18% -7% 3% 5% 9%
22,797 21,138 21,730 22,909 24,978
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -93% -91% -93% -93%
369 263 850 688 592
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,073 1,822 1,957 538 668
-716 -917 -1,200 -882 -1,621
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,765 2,522 3,270 2,855 1,199
18,417 18,357 18,504 21,975 19,420
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
2,378 3,525 3,529 3,600 4,303
1,057 1,147 4 71 -86
394 0 0 0 789
8 Sep 2022
1 minute read
- AMRT last 12 months sales growth 0.5X average + 10%
- AMRT last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
- AMRT last 12 months Capital 2X average + 2% of market cap
- AMRT latest net cash -21% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
18% -7% 3% 5% 9%
22,797 21,138 21,730 22,909 24,978
- Sales grew 9% in the second quarter to 24,978 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 1% now.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 26,181 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-93% -93% -91% -93% -93%
369 263 850 688 592
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -93% profit declined from 688 to 592 billion rupiah in the second quarter on non cash costs.
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use the average -93% cost ratio to predict a 880 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow more negative
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
1,073 1,822 1,957 538 668
-716 -917 -1,200 -882 -1,621
- Free cashflow went more negative from -344 to -953 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -1,621 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 91 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1,155 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives a positive 611 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
2,765 2,522 3,270 2,855 1,199
18,417 18,357 18,504 21,975 19,420
- Cash declined 2,855 to 1,199 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 21,975 to 19,420 billion rupiah so net cash was up -19,120 to -18,221 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -2,443 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -15,441 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
2,378 3,525 3,529 3,600 4,303
1,057 1,147 4 71 -86
394 0 0 0 789
- AMRT cumulative capital improved 3,600 to 4,303 billion rupiah with -86 & + 789 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 6,746 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 87,201 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.98 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,443 billion rupiah (vs 365 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 36 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a -24% lower target price 1,589 rupiah.
