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AMRT still looking sharp despite higher investment spending
AMRT Current 1,485 Target 1,932 +30%
Apr 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters
6% -1% 18% -7% 3%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-91% -92% -94% -94% -92%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,552 -26 357 697 498
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,456 -16,924 -15,652 -15,835 -15,234
Capital paid improved, a 30% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
934, 927, 2,378, 3,525, 3,529
Apr 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters
6% -1% 18% -7% 3%
- Sales grew 3% in the fourth quarter to 21,730 billion rupiah -0% below our 21,772 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of another 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 24,124 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2022.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-91% -92% -94% -94% -92%
- The cash cost ratio went from -94% to -92% profit from 263 to 850 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
- The average cost ratio is at -93% now.
- We use the latest -92% cost ratio to predict a 1,036 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2022.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,552 -26 357 697 498
- Free cashflow went from 697 to 498 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with higher -1,200 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 498 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -915 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 855 billion rupiah Cashflow in the fourth quarter 2022.
Balance sheet lower leverage
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-14,456 -16,924 -15,652 -15,835 -15,234
- Cash increased 2,522 to 3,270 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities increased 18,357 to 18,504 billion rupiah so net cash improved -15,835 to -15,234 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -786 billion rupiah equity payout -2,422 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -12,387 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved, a 30% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
934, 927, 2,378, 3,525, 3,529
- AMRT 28 quarters capital paid improved 3,525 to 3,529 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with a -4 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be 6,313 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 61,664 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.22 X assets with a 8 years payback & a 1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,208 billion rupiah which means an 19 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price 1,932 rupiah.