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AMRT stronger cashflow, expensive

AMRT.jk Current 2,840 Target 1,870 -34%

11/30/2022
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth + 15%
  • Last 12 months cash flow + 0% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 1% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -15% of market cap
​
Sales declined -3%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-7% 3% 5% 9% -3%
21,138 21,730 22,909 24,978 24,252
  • Sales declined -3% in the third quarter to 24,252 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 3% now.
  • This brings the average to 4% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 25,927 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Margin up profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
7% 9% 7% 7% 9%
263 850 688 592 513
  • The cash margin went from 7% to 9% profit from 592 to 513 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cash margin is at 8% now.
  • We use a 8% cash margin to predict a 867 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
​
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
1,822 1,957 538 668 2,289
-917 -1,200 -882 -1,621 -1,174
  • Free cashflow went from -953 to 1,114 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -1,174 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 144 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -1,226 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 809 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
2,522 3,270 2,855 1,199 2,168
18,357 18,504 21,975 19,420 19,888
  • Cash increased 1,199 to 2,168 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 19,420 to 19,888 billion rupiah so net cash was up -18,221 to -17,720 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -3,235 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -14,485 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
1,147 4 71 -86 143
0 0 0 789 4
  • AMRT.jk paid 146 billion rupiah in the third quarter 143 billion rupiah liabilities 4 billion rupiah equity , will pay 3,235 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
  • At the current market value of 117,930 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 3.93 X assets with a 10 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 3,235 billion rupiah which means a 36 X valuation. A 24 X valuation gives a -34% lower target price 1,870 rupiah.
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