AMOR, very profitable, a 30% higher target price
Current 1,850 Target 2,407 +30%
December 20th 2021
1 minute read
Sales grew 67%
Costs up 1 point, profit higher
Cashflow lower from investment in funds
Balance sheet lower net cash (from the funds investment)
Valuation, very profitable, a 30% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 67%
- Sales grew 67% in the third quarter from a year ago to 101 billion rupiah.
- This brings the quarterly average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 125 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs up 1 point, profit higher
- The cash cost ratio went from -70% to -71% profit from 20 to 29 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -71% now.
- We use the same -71% cost ratio to predict a 36 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow lower from investment in funds
- Free cashflow went from 28 to -64 billion rupiah in the third quarter because of a large -90 billion rupiah investment Cashflow from investments in funds.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -18 billion rupiah now.
- We assume a normalized 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 36 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet lower net cash (from the funds investment)
- Cash declined 217 to 198 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 73 to 85 billion rupiah, so net cash worsened 144 to 113 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -79 billion rupiah equity payout -16 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be higher at 168 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, very profitable, a 30% higher target price
- AMOR capital from the last 4 quarters was flat at 50 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will rise to 145 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,111 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 8.88 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 134 billion rupiah which means an 31 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price of 2,407 rupiah.