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AMOR sharp with a 5% yield forecast
AMOR Current 1,410 Target 2,243 + 59%
Jun 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters
32% 1% 1% 6% -8%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-71% -68% -71% -72% -72%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
48, 38, -64, 22, 48
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
181, 113, 51, 34
Capital paid improved , a 59% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
104, 103, 103, 178, 222
Jun 28, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -8%
Last 5 quarters
32% 1% 1% 6% -8%
- Sales declined -8% in the first quarter to 98 billion rupiah -9% below our 108 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 113 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-71% -68% -71% -72% -72%
- The cash cost ratio went from -72% to -72% profit from 30 to 27 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -71% now.
- We use a lower -70% cost ratio to predict a 33 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
48, 38, -64, 22, 48
- Free cashflow went from 22 to 48 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 11 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 34 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
181, 113, 51, 34
- Cash increased 145 to 149 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 94 to 115 billion rupiah so net cash worsened 51 to 34 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -155 billion rupiah equity payout 24 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be 353 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 59% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
104, 103, 103, 178, 222
- AMOR 23 quarter capital paid improved 178 to 222 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 0 billion rupiah liabilities + 44 billion rupiah equity & will be 353 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,128 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 8.07 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 131 billion rupiah which means an 24 X valuation. A 38 X valuation gives a 59% higher target price 2,243 dollars.
