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AMOR, very profitable, a 30% higher target price
Current 1,850 Target 2,407 +30%

December 20th 2021
1 minute read
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Sales grew 67%

• Sales grew 67% in the third quarter from a year ago to 101 billion rupiah.
• This brings the quarterly average to 17% growth.
• We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 125 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.

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Costs up 1 point, profit higher

• The cash cost ratio went from -70% to -71% profit from 20 to 29 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• The average cost ratio is at -71% now.
• We use the same -71% cost ratio to predict a 36 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.

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Cashflow lower from investment in funds

• Free cashflow went from 28 to -64 billion rupiah in the third quarter because of a large -90 billion rupiah investment Cashflow from investments in funds.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at -18 billion rupiah now.
• We assume a normalized 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 36 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

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Balance sheet lower net cash (from the funds investment)

• Cash declined 217 to 198 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
• Liabilities increased 73 to 85 billion rupiah​, so net cash worsened 144 to 113 billion rupiah.
• With our forecast cashflow & a -79 billion rupiah equity payout -16 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be higher at 168 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

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Valuation, very profitable, a 30% higher target price

• AMOR capital from the last 4 quarters was flat at 50 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will rise to 145 billion rupiah in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 4,111 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 8.88 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 2% yield.
• Our cashflow forecast is 134 billion rupiah which means an 31 X valuation. A 40 X valuation gives a 30% higher target price of 2,407 rupiah.

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