AMOR.jk paid 76 billion
Current 1,380 Target 1,510 + 9%
1/27/2023
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
6% -8% -10% -6% 1%
107 ; 98 ; 88 ; 83 ; 84 billion rupiah
Margin flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
29% 29% 39% 29% 29%
30 ; 27 ; 33 ; 23 ; 23 billion rupiah
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
22 ; 49 ; 27 ; 15 ; 10 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; -0 ; 0 billion rupiah
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
145 ; 150 ; 175 ; 189 ; 123 billion rupiah
94 ; 115 ; 84 ; 79 ; 72 billion rupiah
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
7 ; -7 ; 1 ; 1 ; 4 billion rupiah
68 ; 52 ; 0 ; 0 ; 72 billion rupiah
Current 1,380 Target 1,510 + 9%
1/27/2023
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -21%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital (debt & equity) paid (raised) + 4% of market cap
- Latest cash minus liabilities 2% of market cap
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters quarterly sales growth, quarterly ales
6% -8% -10% -6% 1%
107 ; 98 ; 88 ; 83 ; 84 billion rupiah
- Sales grew 1% in the fourth quarter to 84 billion rupiah ; our total forecasts v actual sales are -100% now.
- This brings the average to -6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 86 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 2023.
Margin flat profit down
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit
29% 29% 39% 29% 29%
30 ; 27 ; 33 ; 23 ; 23 billion rupiah
- The cash margin was flat at 29% profit was also flat at 23 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 31% now.
- We use a 31% cash margin to predict a 26 billion rupiah profit in the fourth quarter 2023.
Cashflow less positive
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow
22 ; 49 ; 27 ; 15 ; 10 billion rupiah
0 ; 0 ; 0 ; -0 ; 0 billion rupiah
- Free cashflow went from 15 to 10 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with 0 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 25 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 26 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities
145 ; 150 ; 175 ; 189 ; 123 billion rupiah
94 ; 115 ; 84 ; 79 ; 72 billion rupiah
- Cash declined 189 to 123 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Liabilities declined 79 to 72 billion rupiah so net cash was down 110 to 51 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -90 billion rupiah equity payout -13 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 66 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity
7 ; -7 ; 1 ; 1 ; 4 billion rupiah
68 ; 52 ; 0 ; 0 ; 72 billion rupiah
- AMOR.jk paid 76 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter 4 billion rupiah liabilities 72 billion rupiah equity, will pay 104 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market cap of 3,061 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 8.75 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 105 billion rupiah which means a 29 X valuation. A 32 X valuation gives a 9% higher target price 1,510 rupiah.