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AMFG looking very sharp at only 2X forecast Cashflow
AMFG Current 6,600 Target 16,268 + 146%
Mar 31, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters
2% -5% 10% 4% 16%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -86% -74% -79% -76%
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
282, -28, 378, 267, 270
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,572 -4,363 -4,073 -3,978 -3,721
Capital raised improved , a 146% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,591 -2,591 -2,221 -1,939 -1,662
Mar 31, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 16%
Last 5 quarters
2% -5% 10% 4% 16%
- Sales grew 16% in the first quarter to 1,462 billion rupiah 17% above our 1,253 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 6% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,628 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-89% -86% -74% -79% -76%
- The cash cost ratio went from -79% to -76% profit from 124 to 225 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -79% now.
- We use the average -79% cost ratio to predict a 218 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
282, -28, 378, 267, 270
- Free cashflow went from 267 to 270 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -38 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 222 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -38 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 302 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,572 -4,363 -4,073 -3,978 -3,721
- Cash declined 132 to 125 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,110 to 3,846 billion rupiah so net cash improved -3,978 to -3,721 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -253 billion rupiah equity payout -711 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,769 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 146% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,591 -2,591 -2,221 -1,939 -1,662
- AMFG 21 quarter capital raised improved -1,939 to -1,662 billion rupiah in the first quarter with a -277 billion rupiah liabilities payment & will be -697 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,864 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.40 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,177 billion rupiah which means an 2 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 146% higher target price 16,268 rupiah.