AMFG 12% yield forecast
AMFG Current 5,875 Target 10,275 + 75%
10/29/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
10% 4% 16% -16% 18%
1,215 1,266 1,462 1,225 1,440
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-74% -79% -76% -78% -79%
170 124 225 127 187
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
395 301 308 71 176
-17 -34 -38 -27 -47
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
147 132 125 124 120
4,220 4,110 3,846 3,772 3,688
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-2,221 -1,939 -1,662 -1,616 -1,482
370 283 277 46 99
0 0 0 0 35
10/29/22
1 minute read
- AMFG last 12 months sales growth + 19%
- AMFG last 12 months cash flow + 28% of market cap
- AMFG last 12 months Capital + 29% of market cap
- AMFG latest net cash -140% of market cap
Sales grew 18%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
10% 4% 16% -16% 18%
1,215 1,266 1,462 1,225 1,440
- Sales grew 18% in the third quarter to 1,440 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 4% now.
- This brings the average to 5% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,464 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-74% -79% -76% -78% -79%
170 124 225 127 187
- The cash cost ratio went from -78% to -79% profit from 127 to 187 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -78% now.
- We use a -78% cost ratio to predict a 194 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
395 301 308 71 176
-17 -34 -38 -27 -47
- Free cashflow went from 44 to 129 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -47 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 178 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -47 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 279 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
147 132 125 124 120
4,220 4,110 3,846 3,772 3,688
- Cash declined 124 to 120 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,772 to 3,688 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,648 to -3,568 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -317 billion rupiah equity payout -684 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -2,770 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
-2,221 -1,939 -1,662 -1,616 -1,482
370 283 277 46 99
0 0 0 0 35
- AMFG cumulative capital improved -1,616 to -1,482 billion rupiah with + 99 & + 35 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -481 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,550 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.35 X assets with a 7 years payback & a 12% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 1,115 billion rupiah (vs 711 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 2 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 75% higher target price 10,275 rupiah.
