AMFG 14% yield forecast
AMFG Current 5,825 Target 17,940 + 208%
Aug 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -16%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,103 1,215 1,266 1,462 1,225
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-86% -74% -79% -76% -78%
Cashflow seasonally lower, last 12 months + 38% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-28 378 267 270 44
Net cash (minus liabilities) up, last 12 months change + 28% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,363 -4,073 -3,978 -3,721 -3,648
Capital improved, last 12 months + 39% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,591 -2,221 -1,939 -1,662 -1,616
Aug 3, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined seasonally -16%
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,103 1,215 1,266 1,462 1,225
- Sales declined seasonally -16% in the second quarter to 1,225 billion rupiah -20% below our 1,535 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 3% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,448 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-86% -74% -79% -76% -78%
- The cash cost ratio went from -76% to -78% profit from 225 to 127 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -77% now.
- We use the average -77% cost ratio to predict a 195 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally lower, last 12 months + 38% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-28 378 267 270 44
- Free cashflow went from 270 to 44 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -27 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 240 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -27 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives -34 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second quarter 2023.
Net cash (minus liabilities) up, last 12 months change + 28% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-4,363 -4,073 -3,978 -3,721 -3,648
- Cash declined 125 to 124 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,846 to 3,772 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,721 to -3,648 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a -345 billion rupiah equity payout -698 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -2,667 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved, last 12 months + 39% of market cap
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-2,591 -2,221 -1,939 -1,662 -1,616
- AMFG 22 quarter capital improved improved -1,662 to -1,616 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 46 billion rupiah from liabilities 0 billion rupiah from equity & will be -573 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,528 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.35 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 14% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,298 billion rupiah which means an 2 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives a 208% higher target price 17,940 rupiah.
