AKRA cashflow lower
AKRA Current 1,435 Target 1,596 + 11%
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
17% 29% 20% 18% 4%
6,543 8,457 10,134 11,975 12,472
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-95% -95% -95% -95% -95%
226 299 421 507 581
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-323 1,660 -463 1,689 1,348
-60 -59 -28 -76 -81
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,579 2,600 2,238 3,568 4,733
10,343 12,210 13,537 15,843 14,538
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
3,295 3,887 3,782 4,136 4,676
-58 607 -122 75 68
189 -39 0 274 468
Sep 12, 2022
1 minute read
- AKRA last 12 months sales growth + 91%
- AKRA last 12 months cash flow + 14% of market cap
- AKRA last 12 months Capital + 5% of market cap
- AKRA latest net cash -35% of market cap
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
17% 29% 20% 18% 4%
6,543 8,457 10,134 11,975 12,472
- Sales grew 4% in the third quarter to 12,472 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -5% now.
- This brings the average to 18% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 13,357 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-95% -95% -95% -95% -95%
226 299 421 507 581
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -95% profit increased from 507 to 581 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use the average -95% cost ratio to predict a 583 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-323 1,660 -463 1,689 1,348
-60 -59 -28 -76 -81
- Free cashflow went from 1,613 to 1,267 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -81 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 998 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -61 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 606 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
1,579 2,600 2,238 3,568 4,733
10,343 12,210 13,537 15,843 14,538
- Cash increased 3,568 to 4,733 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 15,843 to 14,538 billion rupiah so net cash was up -12,275 to -9,805 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -668 billion rupiah equity payout -1,755 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -8,050 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity billion rupiah
3,295 3,887 3,782 4,136 4,676
-58 607 -122 75 68
189 -39 0 274 468
- AKRA cumulative capital improved 4,136 to 4,676 billion rupiah with + 68 & + 468 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 7,099 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 28,323 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.07 X assets with a 9 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,423 billion rupiah (vs 4,039 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 12 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 11% higher target price 1,596 rupiah.
