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AKRA sharp as sales & cashflow jump… but more negative net cash
AKRA Current 1,080 Target 1,424 + 32%
Jul 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped again 18%
Last 5 quarters
9% 17% 29% 20% 18%
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-94% -95% -95% -95% -95%
Cashflow jumps higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
291, -360, 1,625, -475, 1,618
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-7,250 -8,764 -9,610 -11,299 -12,275
Capital paid improved . a 32% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,141, 3,295, 3,887, 3,782, 4,136
Jul 25, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped again 18%
Last 5 quarters
9% 17% 29% 20% 18%
- Sales jumped again 18% in the second quarter to 11,975 billion rupiah 13% above our 10,641 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 12,413 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-94% -95% -95% -95% -95%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -95% profit increased from 421 to 507 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use the average -95% cost ratio to predict a 524 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow jumps higher
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
291, -360, 1,625, -475, 1,618
- Free cashflow went from -475 to 1,618 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -76 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 602 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -56 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 540 billion rupiah Average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-7,250 -8,764 -9,610 -11,299 -12,275
- Cash increased 2,238 to 3,568 billion rupiah in the 0 quarter.
- Liabilities increased 13,537 to 15,843 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -11,299 to -12,275 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -588 billion rupiah equity payout -1,574 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -10,701 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved . a 32% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
3,141, 3,295, 3,887, 3,782, 4,136
- AKRA 30 quarter capital paid improved 3,782 to 4,136 billion rupiah in the second quarter with + 75 billion rupiah from liabilities + 274 billion rupiah from equity & will be 5,943 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 21,316 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with an 11 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,162 billion rupiah which means a 10 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 32% higher target price of 1,424 rupiah.
