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AKRA looking pretty sharp as sales jump again!
AKRA Current 980 Target 1,432 + 46%
Apr 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 20%
Last 5 quarters
33% 9% 17% 29% 20%
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-91% -94% -95% -95% -95%
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,180, 291, -360,1,625, -475
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,390 -7,250 -8,764 -9,610 -11,299
Capital paid worsened . a 46% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,435, 3,141, 3,295, 3,887, 3,782
Apr 26, 2022
1 minute read
Sales jumped 20%
Last 5 quarters
33% 9% 17% 29% 20%
- Sales jumped 20% in the first quarter to 10,134 billion rupiah 9% above our 9,303 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 19% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 11,939 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters
-91% -94% -95% -95% -95%
- The cash cost ratio was flat at -95% profit jumped from 299 to 421 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -95% now.
- We use the average -95% cost ratio to predict a 527 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,180, 291, -360,1,625, -475
- Free cashflow went negative from 1,625 to -475 billion rupiah in the first quarter with lower -28 billion rupiah investment gains (working capital).
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 270 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -28 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 590 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-6,390 -7,250 -8,764 -9,610 -11,299
- Cash declined 2,600 to 2,238 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 12,210 to 13,537 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -9,610 to -11,299 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -576 billion rupiah equity payout -1,598 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -9,701 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened . a 46% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
2,435, 3,141, 3,295, 3,887, 3,782
- AKRA 29 quarter capital paid worsened 3,887 to 3,782 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 122 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be 5,956 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 19,342 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a 11 years payback & a 3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,174 billion rupiah which means an 9 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 46% higher target price of 1,432 rupiah.