AGII positive cashflow, expensive
AGII.jk Current 2,350 Target 1,320 -44%
12/12/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
19% -15% 3% -14% 9%
779 ; 664 ; 683 ; 584 ; 636
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
22% 18% 20% 18% 18%
80 ; 33 ; 46 ; 8 ; 22
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
90 ; 189 ; 44 ; 76 ; 166
-71 ; -52 ; -83 ; -71 ; -67
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
711 ; 809 ; 516 ; 661 ; 627
4,499 ; 4,582 ; 4,322 ; 4,483 ; 4,409
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-306 ; 88 ; 253 ; 253 ; 221
16 ; -1 ; 1 ; 1 ; 31
12/12/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -18%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 12% of market cap
- Latest net cash -53% of market cap
Sales grew 9%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
19% -15% 3% -14% 9%
779 ; 664 ; 683 ; 584 ; 636
- Sales grew 9% in the third quarter to 636 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 11% now.
- This brings the average to -4% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 701 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
22% 18% 20% 18% 18%
80 ; 33 ; 46 ; 8 ; 22
- The cash margin was flat at 18% profit increased from 8 to 22 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 19% now.
- We use a 19% cash margin to predict a 37 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
90 ; 189 ; 44 ; 76 ; 166
-71 ; -52 ; -83 ; -71 ; -67
- Free cashflow went from 5 to 99 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -67 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 50 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -74 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 50 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
711 ; 809 ; 516 ; 661 ; 627
4,499 ; 4,582 ; 4,322 ; 4,483 ; 4,409
- Cash declined 661 to 627 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,483 to 4,409 billion rupiah so net cash was up -3,822 to -3,782 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -201 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,581 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid
Last 5 quarters capital (raised) paid from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-306 ; 88 ; 253 ; 253 ; 221
16 ; -1 ; 1 ; 1 ; 31
- AGII.jk paid 252 billion rupiah in the third quarter 221 billion rupiah liabilities 31 billion rupiah equity, will pay 201 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 7,153 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.90 X assets with a 36 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 201 billion rupiah which means a 36 X valuation. A 20 X valuation gives a -44% lower target price 1,320 rupiah.