AGII sales in decline
AGII Current 2,220 Target 1,309 -41%
Aug 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
2% 19% -15% 3% -14%
653 779 664 683 584
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-79% -78% -82% -80% -82%
47 80 33 46 8
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
112 90 189 44 76
-64 -71 -52 -83 -71
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
401 711 809 516 661
4,237 4,499 4,582 4,322 4,483
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-859 -1,149 -1,110 -857 -603
40 -306 40 253 253
1 16 -1 1 1
Aug 23, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 4% of market cap
- Latest net cash -57% of market cap
Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
2% 19% -15% 3% -14%
653 779 664 683 584
- Sales declined -14% in the second quarter to 584 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 11% now.
- This brings the average to -2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 662 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-79% -78% -82% -80% -82%
47 80 33 46 8
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -82% profit from 46 to 8 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -80% now.
- We use the average -80% cost ratio to predict a 34 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
112 90 189 44 76
-64 -71 -52 -83 -71
- Free cashflow went positive again from -40 to 5 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -71 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 30 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -69 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 40 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
401 711 809 516 661
4,237 4,499 4,582 4,322 4,483
- Cash increased 516 to 661 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 4,322 to 4,483 billion rupiah so net cash was down -3,806 to -3,822 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -159 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -3,597 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-859 -1,149 -1,110 -857 -603
40 -306 40 253 253
1 16 -1 1 1
- AGII cumulative capital improved -857 to -603 billion rupiah with + 253 & + 1 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be -444 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,757 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.85 X assets with a 47 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 159 billion rupiah which means a 42 X valuation. A 25 X valuation gives a -41% lower target price 1,309 rupiah.
