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AGII a bit sharp as average Cashflow turns positive
AGII Current 1,975 Target 2,078 + 5%
May 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters
5% 2% 19% -15% 3%
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-79% -79% -78% -82% -80%
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-437, 48, 20, 137, -40
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,873 -3,836 -3,788 -3,773 -3,806
Capital raised improved , a 5% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-900 -859 -1,149 -1,110 -857
May 23, 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 3%
Last 5 quarters
5% 2% 19% -15% 3%
- Sales grew 3% in the first quarter to 683 billion rupiah -18% below our 833 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 782 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters
-79% -79% -78% -82% -80%
- The cash cost ratio went from -82% to -80% profit from 33 to 46 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -80% now.
- We use the average -80% cost ratio to predict a 67 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow seasonally negative
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-437, 48, 20, 137, -40
- Free cashflow went seasonally negative from 137 to -40 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -83 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has turned positive though at 41 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -68 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 76 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-3,873 -3,836 -3,788 -3,773 -3,806
- Cash declined 809 to 516 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 4,582 to 4,322 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -3,773 to -3,806 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout 5,515 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -3,455 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved , a 5% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-900 -859 -1,149 -1,110 -857
- AGII 17 quarter capital raised improved -1,110 to -857 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -253 billion rupiah liabilities -1 billion rupiah equity payouts & will be -505 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 6,011 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.77 X assets with a 21 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 351 billion rupiah which means a 17 X valuation. An 18 X valuation gives a 5% higher target price 2,078 rupiah.