ADRO billion dollar cashflow
ADRO Current 3,540 Target 7,868 + 122%
Sep 1, 2022
1 minute read
ADRO last 12 months sales growth 8X average + 166%
ADRO last 12 months cash flow 6X average + 24% of market cap
ADRO last 12 months Capital 10X average + 11% of market cap
ADRO latest net cash -13% of market cap
Sales soared 89%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
26% 16% 41% -14% 89%
871 1,006 1,424 1,225 2,316
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-71% -59% -51% -53% -54%
114 276 563 440 905
Cashflow up 10X
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
258 431 575 201 1,129
-346 -129 -116 -96 -83
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
1,208 1,511 1,811 1,558 2,244
2,693 2,794 3,129 2,720 3,282
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,601 1,599 1,758 2,116 2,463
-192 -6 34 -41 -11
91 3 125 399 358
Sep 1, 2022
1 minute read
ADRO last 12 months sales growth 8X average + 166%
ADRO last 12 months cash flow 6X average + 24% of market cap
ADRO last 12 months Capital 10X average + 11% of market cap
ADRO latest net cash -13% of market cap
Sales soared 89%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales million dollars
26% 16% 41% -14% 89%
871 1,006 1,424 1,225 2,316
- Sales soared 89% in the second quarter to 2,316 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -5% now.
- This brings the average to 33% growth.
- We predict average growth of -0% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,290 million dollars in the second quarter 2023.
Costs up profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit million dollars
-71% -59% -51% -53% -54%
114 276 563 440 905
- The cash cost ratio went from -53% to -54% profit from 440 to 905 million dollars in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -54% now.
- We use the average -54% cost ratio to predict a 894 million dollars profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow up 10X
Last 5 quarters operating & investment million dollars
258 431 575 201 1,129
-346 -129 -116 -96 -83
- Free cashflow went up 10X from 105 to 1,046 million dollars in the second quarter with -83 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 478 million dollars now.
- We assume -137 million dollars investment cashflow which with lower sales gives 877 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities million dollars
1,208 1,511 1,811 1,558 2,244
2,693 2,794 3,129 2,720 3,282
- Cash increased 1,558 to 2,244 million dollars in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 2,720 to 3,282 million dollars so net cash was up -1,162 to -1,038 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -2,459 million dollars equity payout -604 million dollars liabilities net cash will be 69 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
1,601 1,599 1,758 2,116 2,463
-192 -6 34 -41 -11
91 3 125 399 358
- ADRO cumulative capital improved 2,116 to 2,463 million dollars with -11 & + 358 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 5,527 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,890 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.86 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 31% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 3,507 million dollars (vs 1,969 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 2 X valuation. A 5 X valuation gives a 122% higher target price 7,868 rupiah.
