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ADRO looking sharp with a 14% yield forecast
ADRO Current 3,340 Target 5,991 + 79%
May 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters
19% 26% 16% 41% -14%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-69% -71% -59% -51% -53%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
74, -73, 317, 473, 118
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-1,195, -1,485, -1,283, -1,318, -1,162
Capital paid improved , a 79% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,703 1,601 1,599 1,758 2,116
May 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -14%
Last 5 quarters
19% 26% 16% 41% -14%
- Sales declined -14% in the first quarter to 1,225 million dollars -11% below our 1,381 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the average to 17% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,493 million dollars in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-69% -71% -59% -51% -53%
- The cash cost ratio went from -51% to -53% profit from 563 to 440 million dollars in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -59% now.
- We use the average -59% cost ratio to predict a 488 million dollars profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters million dollars
74, -73, 317, 473, 118
- Free cashflow went from 473 to 118 million dollars in the first quarter with -96 million dollars investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 209 million dollars now.
- We assume higher -122 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives 483 million dollars Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters million dollars
-1,195, -1,485, -1,283, -1,318, -1,162
- Cash declined 1,811 to 1,558 million dollars in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 3,129 to 2,720 million dollars so net cash improved -1,318 to -1,162 million dollars
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,063 million dollars equity payout -505 million dollars liabilities net cash will be 3,684 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital paid improved , a 79% higher target price
Last 5 quarters million dollars
1,703 1,601 1,599 1,758 2,116
- ADRO 29 quarter capital paid improved 1,758 to 2,116 million dollars in the first quarter with 41 million dollars new liabilities, a -399 million dollars equity payment & will be 3,684 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,631 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.93 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 14% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 2,106 million dollars which means an 4 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 79% higher target price 5,991 rupiah.