ADRO 22% yield forecast
ADRO Current 3,750 Target 7,046 + 88%
11/7/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
16% 41% -14% 89% 2%
1,006 1,424 1,225 2,316 2,372
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-59% -51% -53% -54% -58%
276 563 440 905 823
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
431 575 201 1,129 1,536
-129 -116 -96 -83 -380
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
1,511 1,811 1,558 2,244 3,353
2,794 3,129 2,720 3,282 3,743
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
1,599 1,758 2,116 2,463 2,489
-6 34 -41 -11 -33
3 125 399 358 59
11/7/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 136%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 35% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 11% of market cap
- Latest net cash -5% of market cap
Sales grew 2%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales million dollars
16% 41% -14% 89% 2%
1,006 1,424 1,225 2,316 2,372
- Sales grew 2% in the third quarter to 2,372 million dollars ; our forecasts v sales is -5% now.
- This brings the average to 30% growth.
- We predict average growth of 1% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,418 million dollars in the third quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit million dollars
-59% -51% -53% -54% -58%
276 563 440 905 823
- The cash cost ratio went from -54% to -58% profit from 905 to 823 million dollars in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -54% now.
- We use a -58% cost ratio to predict a 859 million dollars profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow million dollars
431 575 201 1,129 1,536
-129 -116 -96 -83 -380
- Free cashflow went from 1,046 to 1,157 million dollars in the third quarter with -380 million dollars investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 692 million dollars now.
- We assume -380 million dollars investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 611 million dollars average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities million dollars
1,511 1,811 1,558 2,244 3,353
2,794 3,129 2,720 3,282 3,743
- Cash increased 2,244 to 3,353 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 3,282 to 3,743 million dollars so net cash was up -1,038 to -390 million dollars .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,709 million dollars equity payout -691 million dollars liabilities net cash will be 395 million dollars in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital, from liabilities, equity million dollars
1,599 1,758 2,116 2,463 2,489
-6 34 -41 -11 -33
3 125 399 358 59
- ADRO cumulative capital improved 2,463 to 2,489 million dollars with -33 & + 59 million dollars from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 4,888 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 7,801 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.71 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 22% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 2,443 million dollars (vs 2,821 million dollars the last 12m) which means a 3 X valuation. A 6 X valuation gives an 88% higher target price 7,046 rupiah.
