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ADMF, looking sharp with a 7% yield

ADMF Current 8,300 Target 11,976 + 44%

Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read

Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 3% -1% 13% -13%
  • Sales declined -13% in the first quarter to 2,079 billion rupiah -9% below our 2,287 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,546 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
​
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-89% -87% -86% -80% -85%
  • The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -85% profit from 459 to 305 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
  • We use a lower -80% cost ratio to predict a 491 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
​
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,242, -2,708, 4,430, 1,035, 751
  • Free cashflow went from 1,035 to 751 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 14 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 877 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 497 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
​
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-15,558, -15,634, -14,774, -13,201, -13,061
  • Cash increased 1,638 to 3,199 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
  • Liabilities increased 14,839 to 16,260 billion rupiah so net cash improved -13,201 to -13,061 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -545 billion rupiah equity payout -1,297 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -11,764 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Capital paid worsened , a 44% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
21,430, 21,520, 23,430, 24,381, 23,571
  • ADMF capital from the last 29 quarters worsened 24,381 to 23,571 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with 814 new liabilities but will be 25,414 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 8,300 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.33 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 7% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 1,842 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 6.5 X valuation gives a 44% higher target price of 11,976 rupiah.
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