ADMF an 8% yield
ADMF Current 8,175 Target 12,169 + 49%
Aug 14, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% -1% 13% -13% -1%
2,117 2,101 2,382 2,079 2,049
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-65% -67% -63% -67% -66%
477 403 425 380 326
262 280 459 305 356
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-2,702 4,438 1,041 733 194
-10 -12 -14 14 -12
Asset growth turns positive
Last 5 quarters non cash asset growth & sales to assets
-1% -2% -4% -2% 1%
9% 9% 11% 10% 9%
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
22,352 24,258 25,201 24,387 25,743
86 1,393 944 -814 749
0 513 0 0 607
Aug 14, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 78% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 41% of market cap
- Latest net cash 0% of market cap
Sales declined -1%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% -1% 13% -13% -1%
2,117 2,101 2,382 2,079 2,049
- Sales declined -1% in the second quarter to 2,049 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 7% now.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,635 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-65% -67% -63% -67% -66%
477 403 425 380 326
262 280 459 305 356
- The cash cost ratio went from -67% to -66% provisions 380 to 326 profit from 305 to 356 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -66% now.
- We use 326 provisions, a -66% cost ratio to predict a 571 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-2,702 4,438 1,041 733 194
-10 -12 -14 14 -12
- Free cashflow went from 747 to 182 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -12 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,595 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -4 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with our forecast sales gives 869 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Asset growth turns positive
Last 5 quarters non cash asset growth & sales to assets
-1% -2% -4% -2% 1%
9% 9% 11% 10% 9%
- Non cash assets growth turned positive -2% to 1% ; the average is -2% now.
- The sales to assets ratio declined 10% to 9% ; the average is 10% now..
- We use 3% average assets growth ; a 10% sales to assets ratio in our forecasts.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
22,352 24,258 25,201 24,387 25,743
86 1,393 944 -814 749
0 513 0 0 607
- ADMF cumulative capital improved 24,387 to 25,743 billion rupiah with + 749 & + 607 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the -2% quarter & will be 26,394 ; in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,175 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at an 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,477 billion rupiah which means a 2.4 X valuation. A 3.5 X valuation gives a 49% higher target price 12,169 rupiah.
