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ADMF, looking sharp with a 7% yield
ADMF Current 8,300 Target 11,976 + 44%
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 3% -1% 13% -13%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-89% -87% -86% -80% -85%
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,242, -2,708, 4,430, 1,035, 751
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-15,558, -15,634, -14,774, -13,201, -13,061
Capital paid worsened , a 44% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
21,430, 21,520, 23,430, 24,381, 23,571
Apr 27, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -13%
Last 5 quarters
-9% 3% -1% 13% -13%
- Sales declined -13% in the first quarter to 2,079 billion rupiah -9% below our 2,287 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,546 billion rupiah in the first quarter of 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-89% -87% -86% -80% -85%
- The cash cost ratio went from -80% to -85% profit from 459 to 305 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use a lower -80% cost ratio to predict a 491 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter of 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
1,242, -2,708, 4,430, 1,035, 751
- Free cashflow went from 1,035 to 751 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 14 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 877 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 497 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter of 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-15,558, -15,634, -14,774, -13,201, -13,061
- Cash increased 1,638 to 3,199 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities increased 14,839 to 16,260 billion rupiah so net cash improved -13,201 to -13,061 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -545 billion rupiah equity payout -1,297 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -11,764 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital paid worsened , a 44% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
21,430, 21,520, 23,430, 24,381, 23,571
- ADMF capital from the last 29 quarters worsened 24,381 to 23,571 billion rupiah in the first quarter. with 814 new liabilities but will be 25,414 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,300 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.33 X assets with a 12 years payback & a 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,842 billion rupiah which means an 5 X valuation. A 6.5 X valuation gives a 44% higher target price of 11,976 rupiah.