ADMF 7% yield forecast
ADMF Current 8,775 Target 11,222 + 28%
11/10/22
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-1% 13% -13% -1% 1%
2,101 2,382 2,079 2,049 2,060
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-67% -63% -67% -66% -64%
403 425 380 326 244
280 459 305 356 485
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
4,438 1,041 733 194 578
-12 -14 14 -12 -16
Net cash quarter.
Last 5 quarters cash, assets, liabilities billion rupiah
954 1,638 3,199 2,025 2,274
24,022 23,726 24,862 23,809 24,324
15,728 14,839 16,260 14,833 14,845
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
24,258 25,201 24,387 25,743 26,057
1,393 944 -814 749 313
513 0 0 607 0
11/10/22
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -2%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 29% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 20% of market cap
- Latest net cash -143% of market cap
Sales grew 1%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
-1% 13% -13% -1% 1%
2,101 2,382 2,079 2,049 2,060
- Sales grew 1% in the third quarter to 2,060 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is 11% now.
- This brings the average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 2,360 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, provisions, profit billion rupiah
-67% -63% -67% -66% -64%
403 425 380 326 244
280 459 305 356 485
- The cash cost ratio went from -66% to -64% provisions 326 to 244 profit from 356 to 485 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -65% now.
- We use a -65% cost ratio to predict a 575 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow higher
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
4,438 1,041 733 194 578
-12 -14 14 -12 -16
- Free cashflow went from 182 to 562 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -16 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 630 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -7 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 779 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash quarter.
Last 5 quarters cash, assets, liabilities billion rupiah
954 1,638 3,199 2,025 2,274
24,022 23,726 24,862 23,809 24,324
15,728 14,839 16,260 14,833 14,845
- Cash increased 2,025 to 2,274 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 14,833 to 14,845 billion rupiah so net cash was up -12,808 to -12,571 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -643 billion rupiah equity payout -6 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -10,097 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
24,258 25,201 24,387 25,743 26,057
1,393 944 -814 749 313
513 0 0 607 0
- ADMF cumulative capital improved 25,743 to 26,057 billion rupiah with + 313 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be 26,705 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 8,775 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,117 billion rupiah which means a 3 X valuation. A 4 X valuation gives a 28% higher target price 11,222 rupiah.
