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ADHI at 0.06X assets

ADHI Current 550 Target 562 + 2%

11/2/22
1 minute read

  • Last 12 months sales growth -3%
  • Last 12 months cash flow -25% of market cap
  • Last 12 months Capital + 16% of market cap
  • Latest net cash -1,441% of market cap
​
Sales grew 11%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
25% 44% -9% -33% 11%
2,906 4,180 3,787 2,540 2,806
  • Sales grew 11% in the third quarter to 2,806 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -8% now.
  • This brings the average to 3% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,375 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
​
Costs flat profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-98% -97% -99% -98% -98%
15 64 17 18 37
  • The cash cost ratio was flat at -98% profit increased from 18 to 37 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
  • We use a -98% cost ratio to predict a 25 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.

Cashflow negative
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
498 2,773 -2,034 235 -818
37 -410 -126 -112 -45
  • Free cashflow went from 124 to -864 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -45 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at -134 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume -45 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 20 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.

Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
1,625 3,152 1,335 2,516 753
35,161 34,242 32,904 33,145 31,582
  • Cash declined 2,516 to 753 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities declined 33,145 to 31,582 billion rupiah so net cash was down -30,629 to -30,829 billion rupiah .
  • With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -81 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -30,748 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
​
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-6,817 -5,981 -6,326 -7,384 -6,484
-419 836 0 -1,057 900
0 0 -345 0 0
  • ADHI cumulative capital improved -7,384 to -6,484 billion rupiah with + 900 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -6,403 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 2,139 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.06 X assets with a 456 years payback & a 0% yield.
  • Our 12m cashflow forecast is 81 billion rupiah (vs -483 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 26 X valuation. A 27 X valuation gives a 2% higher target price 562 rupiah.
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