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ADHI dull results with record low sales, extremely low asset valuation
ADHI Current 720 Target 809 + 12%
May 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -53% to a new low
Last 5 quarters
-11% 10% 25% 44% -53%
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-97% -98% -98% -97% -99%
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,742 -1,137 535 2,406 -2,169
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-31,177 -32,677 -33,536 -31,090 -31,578
Capital raised worsened, a 12% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,376 -6,398 -6,817 -5,981 -6,334
May 2, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -53% to a new low
Last 5 quarters
-11% 10% 25% 44% -53%
- Sales declined seasonally -53% in the first quarter to a new low 1,985 billion rupiah -49% below our 3,887 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 19% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,783 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs up profit down
Last 5 quarters
-97% -98% -98% -97% -99%
- The cash cost ratio went from -97% to -99% profit from 64 to 19 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use -97% cost ratio to predict a 74 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-1,742 -1,137 535 2,406 -2,169
- Free cashflow went from 2,406 to -2,169 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 21 billion rupiah investment gains.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -91 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 115 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash worsened
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-31,177 -32,677 -33,536 -31,090 -31,578
- Cash declined 3,152 to 1,334 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 34,242 to 32,912 billion rupiah so net cash worsened -31,090 to -31,578 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -388 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -31,189 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised worsened, a 12% higher target price
Last 5 quarters billion rupiah
-5,376 -6,398 -6,817 -5,981 -6,334
- ADHI 21 quarter capital raised worsened -5,981 to -6,334 billion rupiah in the first quarter with 353 billion rupiah new equity but will be -5,946 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,564 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.07 X assets with a 98 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 384 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 8 X valuation gives a 12% higher target price of 809 rupiah.