ADHI more capital raised
ADHI Current 800 Target 939 + 17%
Aug 21, 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -33%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
10% 25% 44% -9% -33%
2,327 2,906 4,180 3,787 2,540
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-98% -98% -97% -99% -98%
2 15 64 17 18
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-996 498 2,773 -2,034 235
-142 37 -410 -126 -112
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
671 1,625 3,152 1,335 2,516
33,348 35,161 34,242 32,904 33,145
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-6,398 -6,817 -5,981 -6,326 -7,384
-1,022 -419 836 0 -1,057
0 0 0 -345 0
Aug 21, 2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months cash flow + 30% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -35% of market cap
- Latest net cash -1,075% of market cap
Sales declined -33%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
10% 25% 44% -9% -33%
2,327 2,906 4,180 3,787 2,540
- Sales declined -33% in the second quarter to 2,540 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -7% now.
- This brings the average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 13% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 3,680 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-98% -98% -97% -99% -98%
2 15 64 17 18
- The cash cost ratio went from -99% to -98% profit from 17 to 18 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -98% now.
- We use a -97% cost ratio to predict a 71.8 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
-996 498 2,773 -2,034 235
-142 37 -410 -126 -112
- Free cashflow went positive from -2,160 to 124 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -112 investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 216 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -15 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 93 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
671 1,625 3,152 1,335 2,516
33,348 35,161 34,242 32,904 33,145
- Cash increased 1,335 to 2,516 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 32,904 to 33,145 billion rupiah so net cash was up -31,569 to -30,629 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -372 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -30,257 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital worsened
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-6,398 -6,817 -5,981 -6,326 -7,384
-1,022 -419 836 0 -1,057
0 0 0 -345 0
- ADHI cumulative capital worsened -6,326 to -7,384 billion rupiah with -1,057 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter but will be -7,012 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,849 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.07 X assets with a 99 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 372 billion rupiah which means an 8 X valuation. A 9 X valuation gives a 17% higher target price 939 rupiah.
