ADES cashflow lower
ADES.jk Current 7,525 Target 8,016 + 7%
12/6/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
27% 32% -8% 5% 4%
241 319 294 309 321
Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
25% 42% 29% 30% 29%
53 123 76 81 84
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
85 112 78 54 64
-23 -154 -22 -9 -49
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
421 380 437 482 497
306 334 335 343 332
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-0 -0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
12/6/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth + 33%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 2% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital -0% of market cap
- Latest net cash 4% of market cap
Sales grew 4%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
27% 32% -8% 5% 4%
241 319 294 309 321
- Sales grew 4% in the third quarter to 321 billion rupiah our forecasts v sales is 2% now.
- This brings the average to 8% growth.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 351 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Margin down profit up
Last 5 quarters cash margin, profit billion rupiah
25% 42% 29% 30% 29%
53 123 76 81 84
- The cash margin went from 30% to 29% profit from 81 to 84 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cash margin is at 32% now.
- We use a 30% cash margin to predict a 95 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating, investment cashflow billion rupiah
85 112 78 54 64
-23 -154 -22 -9 -49
- Free cashflow went from 45 to 14 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -49 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 19 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -27 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives 74 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
421 380 437 482 497
306 334 335 343 332
- Cash increased 482 to 497 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined 343 to 332 billion rupiah so net cash was up 139 to 165 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -218 billion rupiah equity payout -62 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 242 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters capital from liabilities, equity billion rupiah
-0 -0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
- ADES.jk (raised) 0 billion rupiah in the third quarter 0 billion rupiah liabilities 0 billion rupiah equity, will pay 280 billion rupiah this next 12 months.
- At the current market value of 4,439 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.73 X assets with a 4 years payback & a 5% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 296 billion rupiah which means a 15 X valuation. A 16 X valuation gives a 7% higher target price 8,016 rupiah.