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ADES, a 10% yield, 77% higher target price
Current 3,180 Target 5,627 +77%

November 26th 2021
1 minute read

Sales jumped 27%
  • Sales jumped 27% in the third quarter to a new high 241 billion rupiah vs our 258 billion rupiah forecast.
  • This brings the quarterly average to 10% growth.
  • We predict average growth of 4% to bring sales to 284 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
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Costs 2 points higher
  • The cash cost ratio was 2 points higher at -75% in the third quarter giving a 53 billion rupiah net profit.
  • The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -66% now.
  • We use a lower -68% cost ratio to predict a 83 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
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Cashflow positive again
  • Free cashflow was positive again 68 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -23 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
  • Average quarterly Cashflow is at 42 billion rupiah now.
  • We assume the same -23 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 66 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
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Balance sheet, higher net cash
  • Cash increased from 360 to 421 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
  • Liabilities increased from 274 to 306 billion rupiah so net cash increased from 86 to 115 billion rupiah.
  • With our forecast cashflow & a -185 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be 178 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
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Valuation, a 10% yield, 77% higher target price
  • ADES capital from the last 23 quarters was flat at 156 billion rupiah in the third quarter but will rise to 392 billion rupiah in12 months time.
  • At the current market value of 1,781 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.5 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 10% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 242 billion rupiah which means an 7 X valuation. A 13 X valuation gives a 77% higher target price of 5,627 rupiah.
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