ADES 9% yield forecast
ADES Current 6,175 Target 9,504 + 54%
30 Aug 2022
1 minute read
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 27% 32% -8% 5%
190 241 319 294 309
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-73% -75% -58% -71% -70%
42 53 123 76 81
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
38 85 112 78 54
-73 -23 -154 -22 -9
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
360 421 380 437 482
274 306 334 335 343
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
165 165 165 165 165
0 -0 -0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
30 Aug 2022
1 minute read
- ADES last 12 months sales growth 3X average + 63%
- ADES last 12 months cash flow + 3% of market cap
- ADES last 12 months Capital below average -0% of market cap
- ADES latest net cash + 4% of market cap
Sales grew 5%
Last 5 quarters growth & sales billion rupiah
3% 27% 32% -8% 5%
190 241 319 294 309
- Sales grew 5% in the second quarter to 309 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is -1% now.
- This brings the average to 14% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 378 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
Last 5 quarters cost ratio & profit billion rupiah
-73% -75% -58% -71% -70%
42 53 123 76 81
- The cash cost ratio went from -71% to -70% profit from 76 to 81 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -69% now.
- We use the average -69% cost ratio to predict a 108 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter 2023.
Cashflow lower
Last 5 quarters operating & investment billion rupiah
38 85 112 78 54
-73 -23 -154 -22 -9
- Free cashflow went from 56 to 45 billion rupiah in the second quarter with -9 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 30 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -16 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 100 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash up
Last 5 quarters cash & liabilities billion rupiah
360 421 380 437 482
274 306 334 335 343
- Cash increased 437 to 482 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased 335 to 343 billion rupiah so net cash was up 102 to 139 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a -337 billion rupiah equity payout -63 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be 202 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital flat
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
165 165 165 165 165
0 -0 -0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
- ADES cumulative capital was flat at 165 billion rupiah with 0 & 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the second quarter & will be 565 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 3,643 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 2.4 X assets with a 2 years payback & a 9% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 400 billion rupiah (vs 124 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means a 9 X valuation. A 14 X valuation gives a 54% higher target price 9,504 rupiah.
