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ACST, still dull as sales slump again
ACST Current 174 Target 145 -17%
26 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -30%
57% -31% 66% -5% -30%
Costs down profit up
-113% -117% -146% -166% -99%
Cashflow negative again
19, -40, -201, 167, -149
Balance sheet net cash improved
-2,738, -2,654, -1,293, -891, -856
Capital raised improved, a -17% lower target price
-2,791 -2,837 -3,253 -3,242 -3,232
26 Apr 2022
1 minute read
Sales declined -30%
57% -31% 66% -5% -30%
- Sales declined -30% in the first quarter to 290 billion rupiah -31% below vs our 418 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to -0% growth.
- We predict average growth of 18% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 543 billion rupiah in the first quarter 2023.
Costs down profit up
-113% -117% -146% -166% -99%
- The cash cost ratio went from -166% to -99% profit from -304 to -25 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -132% now.
- We use the latest -99% cost ratio to predict a -22 billion rupiah profit in the first quarter 2023.
Cashflow negative again
19, -40, -201, 167, -149
- Free cashflow went negative again 167 to -149 billion rupiah in the first quarter with -2 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -56 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 7 billion rupiah Cashflow in the first quarter 2023.
Balance sheet net cash improved
-2,738, -2,654, -1,293, -891, -856
- Cash declined 472 to 314 billion rupiah in the first quarter.
- Liabilities declined 1,363 to 1,170 billion rupiah so net cash improved -891 to -856 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -25 billion rupiah liabilities payment net cash will be -832 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital raised improved, a -17% lower target price
-2,791 -2,837 -3,253 -3,242 -3,232
- ACST 29 quarter capital raised improved -3,242 to -3,232 billion rupiah with a -10 liabilities payment & will be -3,207 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,205 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.03 X assets with a 67 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our sales forecast is 29 billion rupiah which means an 1.2 X valuation. A 1 X valuation gives a -17% lower target price of 145 rupiah.