ACST sales up
ACST Current 176 Target 190 + 8%
02/11/2022
1 minute read
Sales grew seasonally 30%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
66% -5% -30% -25% 30%
437 414 290 219 285
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-156% -81% -196% -136% -64%
-233 -304 -25 -92 -114
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
-200 165 -146 -66 167
-1 2 -2 -1 -2
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
315 472 314 240 401
1,608 1,363 1,170 1,161 1,324
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,253 -3,242 -3,232 -3,224 -3,218
1,061 11 10 8 6
-1,479 -1 0 -0 0
02/11/2022
1 minute read
- Last 12 months sales growth -35%
- Last 12 months cash flow + 5% of market cap
- Last 12 months Capital + 2% of market cap
- Latest net cash -41% of market cap
Sales grew seasonally 30%
Last 5 quarters growth, sales billion rupiah
66% -5% -30% -25% 30%
437 414 290 219 285
- Sales grew seasonally 30% in the third quarter to 285 billion rupiah ; our forecasts v sales is + 26% now.
- This brings the average to -7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 393 billion rupiah in the third quarter 2023.
Costs down profit down
Last 5 quarters cost ratio, profit billion rupiah
-156% -81% -196% -136% -64%
-233 -304 -25 -92 -114
- The (cashflow) cash cost ratio went from -136% to -64% profit from -92 to -114 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The average cost ratio is at -119% now.
- We use a -92% cost ratio to predict a 5 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter 2023.
Cashflow positive again
Last 5 quarters operating, investment Cashflow billion rupiah
-200 165 -146 -66 167
-1 2 -2 -1 -2
- Free cashflow went from -67 to 165 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -2 billion rupiah investment cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 29 billion rupiah now.
- We assume -1 billion rupiah investment cashflow which with higher sales gives 28 billion rupiah average Cashflow in the next 12 months.
Net cash down
Last 5 quarters cash, liabilities billion rupiah
315 472 314 240 401
1,608 1,363 1,170 1,161 1,324
- Cash increased 240 to 401 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased 1,161 to 1,324 billion rupiah so net cash was down -921 to -923 billion rupiah .
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout -110 billion rupiah liabilities net cash will be -810 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Capital improved
Last 5 quarters cumulative capital , liabilities & equity
-3,253 -3,242 -3,232 -3,224 -3,218
1,061 11 10 8 6
-1,479 -1 0 -0 0
- ACST cumulative capital improved -3,224 to -3,218 billion rupiah with + 6 & + 0 billion rupiah from liabilities, equity in the third quarter & will be -3,108 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,231 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.06 X assets with a 14 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our 12m cashflow forecast is 127 billion rupiah (vs 117 billion rupiah the last 12m) which means an 18 X valuation. A 19 X valuation gives a 8% higher target price 190 rupiah.
